Here is the daily chart of the SP 500, what I call a running market. I did post last week that I thought it was time to get out. From a big picture standpoint I still believe that, however when we get into these running markets where as you can see the pullbacks are very small and do not form any wave type of look, it is very difficult to time an entry in the opposite direction. The reason for this is virtually every oscillator will diverge for awhile before these come to an end.
This last week did not show much change in the commercials activity, and there is not such an overwhelming amount that this can be turned on a dime. However, when the commercials are net short at the time of they year when the seasonal high is here, we need to look for a decline. I have not shorted this yet and doubt I will today the way things look. It is more likely that I will short this after we get a drop and then rally against it which could take some time.
I posted the chart completely plain to demonstrate one thing. If this was all you looked at without dates or indicators and were to place a bet on where the price would be in a week, I bet most would say higher. That is the point, don't get cute picking tops. We are in an area where one should occur but that is no lock that it will. If we were to blow through this area in the face of a commercial short position, that in reality would be a buy signal and indicate my call for this to be a top is wrong.