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Monday, August 10, 2009

Here is a chart for those who doubt the PPT exists. This is the last thing of this nature I will post here. After this for those who still feel it is not true, just go elsewhere. I am only going so far to talk about this. With the communist regime we have now, there is no doubt they will come after me if I push this too far.



What I have here is a chart of the SP 500 weekly and below the position size of the large traders from the COT report. Large traders are fund managers and as a result are momentum traders. The typical pattern is for them to be heavy long at peaks and heavily short at lows. They typically buy at 20 day highs and sell at 20 day lows or thereabouts. They then pyramid positions with profits adding more longs as prices rise with the profits they have made, etc.. This is due to how they invest their money. However, what you notice on this chart time and time again, is actually heavy long positions on big pushes down. Since we know that large funds liquidate on these moves that leaves only one group left that can afford to lose this type of money to try and stop a move, the US Government.



Any fund would have been wiped out by riding a move of this size down, and none of them were in this market. Notice also how the positions lighten on upmoves, again the opposite of what fund managers do. This tells you that it is mission accomplished when the bounces occur and time to get out. It also tells you that since the overall size of the position in this category is going in this direction, the party doing this also has more money than anyone else in the game so they can overcome the total of what all the other players in this category are doing just by themselves.



This mystery component in the Large Trader category, acts completely the opposite of every else in the category. They also apparently have unlimited capital. They are not allowed to be classified as hedgers and get into the commercials category, so who could this possibly be?



This group has unlimited capital, and buys when prices go down and exits when they go up a little but still at lower prices than where they entered, taking tremendous losses time and time again.



There really is no mystery folks, it is the PPT. I do not see why anyone would be surprised by this with all the political nonsense that goes on every day. I really do not think this is anything to be concerned about in the least. Just get used to anticipating where they will show up and profit from it. They showed up right on cue last week right after I posted that chart. The argument is always that intervention just delays the inevitable, maybe so, but it makes the rides down a little smoother and I do not believe there is anything wrong with that.

The other interventions that are going on right now are far more disconcerting to me than this is.

3 comments:

WarChestSM said...

Thanks for the additional color Chris

Charles Hugh Smith said...

Good analysis, Chris, thank you. I am wondering if you're short as of today 8/11/09.

Chris Johnston said...

I shorted the Nasdaq and the Q's yesterday actually the NAZ is the weaker of the two major indexes. I also shorted some individual stocks yesterday in addition to the QQQQ. I am hoping now for a bounce day to setup the real sell, but wanted some exposure in case it did not happen.