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Sunday, August 02, 2009



ARE WE HEADING FOR TROUBLE?

I know these charts are hard to see with all the lines on them. Most of you won't know what all the lines are anyway. Just focus on where the two red arrows are and the olive green line heading down in the second graph.

The first red arrow indicates an extreme overvalued reading with stocks vs bonds. Big declines have occurred in the past when this condition has been present.

Second, the red arrow in the third graph indicates an overly bullish reading between small traders and advisors, also a bearish condition.

Third, the olive line in the second graph shows commercial selling beginning to come into the market place. Also a bearish sign when in a downtrend.

The short term trend is still up, but I am looking every day for my short term indicators to give me a sell signal. It will be all in on the short side when one shows up, and I am hoping for that this week. I am looking for a sharp decline here to start any day now.

2 comments:

Charles Hugh Smith said...

Hi Chris:
Great post, thank you once again for posting analysis which can't be found elsewhere.
charles smith

Chris Johnston said...

No problem. There are some very unusual things going on with this rally, particularly the complete lack of volume all day then an obvious government(PPT)buy program in the last 30 minutes to insure an up close.

I don't think I have every seen markets manipulated this much. I suspect once the battle over some of the legislation is over, the PPT is going to back off a bit and let this drop. That way they can blame a market drop on a non-passage of the health care plan.

Just a hunch. Fundamentally we are set for a decline, but in reality it may setup a great buying opportunity. We are just going to have to see what happens once a decline begins with the commercials.