ES Weekly Chart

Here is a chart of the E Mini SP 500 Index. A couple of posts ago I displayed a 5 point Megaphone type of pattern which is a reversal pattern. It required a close below the prior days low for entry on the short side. This has not happened yet. It does appear to be smooth sailing here as the bottom graph shows the Commercials occupying a comfortable long position and the trend being up.

One of my mentors Larry Williams has called for a top to be made here in the next couple of weeks. His market turn calls are beyond incredible so I have to take a look to see what could support that. There are two things that jump out here as being supportive of a decline. First, the middle graph shows stocks valued vs bonds, and it shows stocks extremely over valued. Second, the bottom graph shows in Green a sentiment measure, which is reading a very bullish number. Both of these things generally lead to declines in the market. However, that does not mean you just run out and sell when you see these readings.

What might be the best thing to look at to time this is the ADX indicator. It is a measure of trend, and generally when it gets to a very extreme level it indicates the end of a trend. It is approaching that level but is not there yet. Also, the Vix is indicating a turn is imminent.

When all of these things are put together, it tells me we have to look for a decline to begin within the next two weeks. It is frustrating sometimes not getting the highs and lows right all the time. This is impossible and a fruitless excercise. All we can do is put the odds in our favor and make the trades on the side of the probabilities. There is more market manipulation than at any time in history by the PPT so that is making short side opportunities harder to time. We just have to accept this for what it is because it is not going away any time soon.