A PENNY FOR YOUR THOUGHTS

It seems to me from listening to the experts the future value of the dollar is headed towards a penny. Readers of this blog know that I do not agree with this. The last time I spoke about the dollar I reviewed what was and still is a bearish setup on the weekly chart with the COT data. That is just that, a setup not a trade entry. When we look at the daily chart above, we may have a buy signal here. Notice the three consecutive green arrows, they are short term buy indicators. Rarely if ever do we see 3 consecutive arrows with this tool on a daily chart.

Also notice the momentum oscillator far out raced the price on the downside, and now is threatening to cross the momentum line on the upside. If it fails here it is a sell signal, if it continues through here it is an indication we are likely heading upwards. Much has been written about currencies breaking out of the first two weeks of the years range as indicative of direction for the entire year. These stats show a high 60's % accuracy. I have not done this research myself, so I do not know if they are accurate or not. However, it is something to monitor now. In drawing that range you also have to go back in some cases to the end of the prior year to accurately determine the range. In the case of the dollar index, it would be 74.54 and 78.77.

These studies say we have a close to 70% probability of the year closing on the side of this breakout. You might want to do your own research on this to verify/reject the notion of it.