WELCOME BACK KOTTER!!!!!!!!!!!!
I had stated recently a couple of weeks ago that the PPT had been noticeably absent in the market. It is good to see our old friends back in the game. Maybe they were watching Dan Marino in the weight loss commercials telling all of us to get back in the game so they took his advice. Above is a 5000 bar tick chart of the emini SP 500. You can see that it was drifting along at the lows of the day until 10 minutes before the close. When you see this type of "mystery" lift at the end of the day like this that is the PPT buying futures. We have all made their job so easy by having virtually no heavy selling days so they have not had to do any late day saves like this. We were not down that much at the time they showed up but the program traders rarely play at this time, so when you take them out of the picture, viola who is left?
This was very heavy volume in the last 10 minutes, tick bars are based on volume so more form in shorter periods of time when volume is heavy. Fewer form per hour when the volume is light. This was just a quick little How's your father to the market to stop it from being down any appreciable amount today. It did have the feel of a late day rollover, and they sensed this I suppose and propped it up. As I have stated before and will again, there is no reason to get up in arms about this. It is part of the game. They set the rules for us to play by and this is one of the things they are doing whether we like it or not. There will not be a large decline without some extraneous event that just gets away from them before they can do anything about it.
I think it is funny to be honest with you. You just have to accept that if you are short and the market is down a decent amount, the government is likely to come in and improve the close, it is what it is. All the market manipulation that is going on is alot of work to try and force something somewhere that it may or may not want to go. I guess we just never learn. We all I think have to agree that deleveraging is needed to get things back to a ground level to build on. However, in the face of this our government is dramatically increasing leverage to try and stop deleveraging from happening. This is just creating bubbles again that will pop and cause large declines that will hurt people severely when they finally happen.
I did hear Bill Miller on CNBC today talking about the tremendous values that are out there to be had in stocks. Each weekend I look at every single SP 500 and NAZ 100 stock chart. I guess I am missing something because these tremendous values to me are nowhere to be found. A very high percentage of the stocks have moved up so rapidly, I fail to see how they are values at this level. However, his track record prior to the last few years was incredible so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
My short I put on this am in the Russell is still on and slightly ahead as of today's close. I am also short 7 individual stocks 6 of which are ahead and one is basically a scratch. We will see what tomorrow brings. I have my stops in and will just let the action play out. We will see if they late day PPT buy program carries over or not. I do not expect a large decline as I stated in the last post, so I have short term targets on all of these trades. I never know which trades will work well and which will not in spite of trying desperately to figure out a way of determining that in advance. I will post the charts of some of these trades once they are completed win or lose.