This used to be boxing until all the money got involved and they started fixing so many of the fights. Now I refer to Sugar.
This is a market that has taken a little bit of my money this month. I have been looking to short this market and have been clobberred obviously thus far. The COT report shows a number of reasons to be looking for a top in this market even though we have not seen one yet. The longer term momentum oscillator is showing a triple divergence with three lower peaks, while the shorter term one is not as bearish looking. We also now have a very good trendline that is formed to short a break of it.
There is also Progo divergence which is the green line overlayed on the price with a dotted line showing the divergence. We are just continuing to make new highs so if we keep going up some of this condition especially the divergences, may work themselves off. For now I guess I am just the idiot who can't see the forest through the trees. The 5 yr old test would clearly reveal that it is just going up so it should continue. Unfortunately for me, I have this false sense of self worth where I think I am smarter than a 5 yr old.
Below is the COT picture, it should at least make me look a little less like an idiot.
Notice the greeen line here which is the Small Speculator long position. It is very close to it's all time high and also the Large Specs, the black line, is also maxing out. Combine this with the Commercials in RED continuing to sell, and we do have a good potential setup for a top. The one problem with this setup is of course that Commercials have been heavily short now for quite awhile and not been able to cap this rally. In situations like this, the Commercials position is not all that useful. The Small Spec long is the aspect of this that is very bearish.
We do appear to be having the bounce in stocks that I had mentioned, so lets see if we can't get a good shorting setup there in the next couple of days.