ON VACATION BUT NOT ON DRUGS
As a trader there really is no such thing as a vacation. I am constantly watching the markets and trading them regardless of where I am or what I am doing. I never want to miss a large move because I was not paying attention. I do miss moves for other reasons, but will never allow myself the excuse of being mentally checked out.
Of the things I called out yesterday, every one happened except the Gold and Silver, and my orders were not filled there anyway. Now it appears to me that the Metals shorts are marginal, and the Copper market is actually setup for a rally.
The one trade I am really laying in wait for is a short in the Bond Market here if we get a bounce of 2 or 3 days. My momentum indicators that I use have turned decidedly down now in this market, so I just need an entry pattern now.
It does also appear we are putting in a low here for stocks, so I am looking to get long there. I am long the inverse dollar ETF ( UDN ) which had huge volume yesterday. I am not sure I am thrilled with that, all the amateurs piled into that trade yesterday. The volume was up 15 fold in that ETF from the prior day. I guess I have to hope John Q Public has that one right. I took it because of the short I took in the Dollar Index in attempt to mirror that trade in my equity accounts.
From a bigger picture perspective, it does look like quite a few things are going to rally here, Grains, Energies, Currenices, Stocks. I am not sure about the Metals. Copper looks like a near term buy to me then a longer term sell on a rally on the Weekly Chart. Gold and Silver I do not have a clear view on, but the Weekly trends are up, so I guess that is the path of least resistance now that the short term sell patterns have not fully developed.
I was trying to buy Sugar today, but that market is down alot, so I think after today this Buy pattern is going to probably be nullified. It may not be I will just have to wait and see how it looks after today. The Sugar long I mentioned in here last week did work out for a profit, but less of one than I had hoped. I cannot show charts from where I am now, so I will catch up with the charts when the trip is over.
As for today, often days like yesterday are followed by narrow range sideways days too consolidate the prior days action. I am hoping we go across for a few days to setup a long entry in the indexes. Also, we are heading into a holiday, so the volume will probably fall off making the PPT the deciders on what happens today. This will likely mean that if we happen to be down going into the last hour, look for a late day save by them. These guys are good as we have seen over and over during the last year. If you are a day trader, look for longs during the last hour if we happen to be down going into it.
Good Trading to all