SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Poor me the professionals were betting against my investment, we should fine them and throw them in jail.
I am so sick and tired of people not owning up to their own actions. I hope I live long enough to see the world return to a state where people are actually responsible for their own actions. Here is a novel thought, every time you buy something there is a professional betting against you on the purchase. Whatever you buy has been bought or produced for less than the sale price. Does everyone want a guarantee that a plant they buy will not depreciate in value?
When you buy a stock there is a professional betting on it going down, he is called a specialist. He would not sell it to you if he did not think he could buy it back for cheaper. I am not a big Buffett fan just because of what a whacky liberal he is, but I sure hope the powers that be listen to him on this Goldman Sachs situation. His comment was that he had 260,000 employees that work for his company. It is certainly impossible for him to know if any of them might be doing something wrong at some point. If you invest in anything there are always professionals betting against you. None of them have 100% win/loss records. Sometimes they are wrong also. Just look at the funds that go out of business, they took the wrong side of a market and lost money.
If nobody was on the other side of the transaction, there would be no market and hence no product for you to invest in to begin with.
Let's get back to business now and look at the dollar trade I mentioned over the weekend.
I have marked the proper entry and the one I indicated on the prior post. I actually played the Euro instead of this which is essentially the inverse of this trade, so I went short there. That multiple point divergence bothered me on the POIV indicator I showed. The Euro did not have that, but in reality it is the same trade. This looks good on alot of fronts, so I do expect this market to move higher. Of course regular readers are probably bored with me saying that since I have been bullish on this market for 6 months. The good news is that I have been right.
As for stocks, I am not so sure. When I look across all the SP 500 stocks which I do every weekend and also the full Naz 100, I do not see a large number of primo sell setups. I scratched a few out today, but overall I think this means we are ultimately going up more. I think we would have alot of divergences starting to show up in individual stocks if this were a top.
Another sector that I think is ripe for a decline is the Grains. Below is a chart of July Soybeans and it shows a short I just put on today.
I argued with a friend over which Grain market to short, who has a completely different way of determining where he wants to trade. Regardless, this sector overall is into resistance and should see some sort of a pullback in prices. I had determined that since we were making lower short term highs in this market over the last week, that this was where I have no idea if I picked the right one or not, time will tell.
What I will say though is that selling the weak and buying the strong is what all the pros do. It does not work in every instance, but neither does anything else that I know of. Over time it will pay off.