OOPS

We all have certainly said things at times that we wish we hadn't and immediately tried to find a way to work ourselves out of the mess we created. The trouble with having your governing style being "smack talk at a pick up game at the Y," is that once you are running it anything can come out. It really does not matter at the hoops game, but as the President, it actually does. He is certainly privy to many things none of us need or want to know. One of the things he is privy to on some level, is what the PPT is doing right now. When the comment "we've done things you don't even know about" comes out, I have no way of knowing exactly what he was referring to. It was most likely many things. I am fairly sure that amongst that list was the urge to brag about how they have saved the US Stock Market. However, it would hardly be appropriate for him to tell everyone how they buy futures heavily when intra day declines occur to make sure they do not last.

Wednesday was another vintage performance by the PPT in my opinion. The market was collapsing, down about 150 and accelerating. Of course as we have learned, this means buy with both hands and it was. This very unnatural intraday turnarounds are spectacular, but there will come a day where their futures buy programs will not be enough to stop this. When you build these huge air pockets, paybacks are a bitch. For now though there do not seem to be any paybacks on the horizon. I do not see why they won't even allow a 2 to 4 day correction, but what do I know. There is not going to be any decline before the elections, they just won't allow it period.

I continue to look for short term sell signals just because that is what my techniques I have learned over all these years, are telling me we are setup for. Unfortunately they are losing trades right now due to what I described above. As a result I am taking them with small size. This is a judgement call, but when you know you have a manipulated market you can't just throw away all your money foolishly. At the same time I cannot ignore valid signals that are showing up for an arbitrary opinion like what I stated above. So I am just giving some back right now. Oh well. I am not stubborn, I am just following my rules. I will go long when buy signals develop. Until then I will just sit back with small size and marvel at what is likely to be the most unique time in history. Going forward once this last 2 years is reversed, it is unlikely the government will ever control all asset prices to the degree that they are doing so now, and we can get back to normalcy.

The Dollar Index below still seems to be basing here for a move upward, but I do have one concern here. We are using alot of upward momentum in the oscillators without much progress upward. At times this works like a stopped up drain that finally clears. If we don't get going to the upside here soon, this could have another big leg down.

I have traded this market a couple of times on the long side and basically scratched both the trades. The first one I completely mismanaged but the second one just never went anywhere. I suppose if today were to clear yesterday's high one could go long, but I doubt that is going to happen. That would require a sharp stock sell off, which is not likely. Other than that virtually every market trades in conjunction with stocks, so I doubt many shorts are going to work right now. You might want to focus on long side trades until at least after Tuesday.