STUBBORN

I guess I am just stubborn ( A thought that keeps popping into my head ). In reality it is not that at all, I am just going by what my studies tell me. First there is a very powerful mid term election up bias in stocks, and we have certainly seen that. That bias basically expires tomorrow. We know the PPT will not allow this market to go down before that time, that is a given. If for some reason every mutual fund in the world decided to sell everything they owned in the next 3 hours, the government would likely take a trillion dollar position long the SP 500, to reverse the slide. Of course that would violate the laws on position limits, but as we have seen they pay very little attention to the rules of our land when it pertains to them. As a result, there is no reason to short this market before Wednesday no matter what your signals might tell you.

However, in the bottom of the two indicators, there is a special pattern that is hard to spot, and is proprietary to Larry Williams, so I will not point it out specifically or what the rules are. It is a sell pattern that does not show up often, but is usually pretty good when it does. It does not pinpoint a day for entry, just a direction to look. We do today if we were to close above 1193 have a possible trap pattern for a sell. I doubt that is going to happen. I think it is more likely that if we were to get a trap and reverse pattern, it will setup tomorrow indicating a short on Wednesday. It would be a buy the rumor sell the news type of situation. This would just require a close above this recent flat congestion that reverses the very next day. I have no idea if this will happen or not, NONE. I also have no expectation, NONE. It is simply a possible setup that could develop that I will act on if it does.

One of my weaknesses as a trader is these running moves like we have had here. They just creep along with very small pullbacks, and make retracement entries tough to find. The indicators I use often diverge during runs like this, so I have to use a ton of judgement, and be right about all of those calls, to not get clobbered during runs like this. It does appear to me that almost all indicators diverge against trend runs like this that just creep along, so we have to be aware of that. Life is a judgement call and so is this. In general I think there has to be alot of very prominent divergence, and not just wiggles, to go against a trend like this looking for a reversal. The other exception I have found is you can go against them when the pattern in the bottom indicator is there.

Larry Williams just recently let some of us know of a cycle due in the metals that could call for a major top right here, specifically in Silver. This would setup a very interesting scenario if it were to pan out. That would likely mean a bottom in the dollar and probably a top in stocks. However, that is not necessarily the case. At some point the correlations that are making the world one market, are going to de-couple. The DX does appear to be making a bottom here as I have stated recently, and I am looking for buy signals there every day. I have orders to go long there today, but they are above the current price by enough that I doubt they are going to be filled.

I am content to wait a day or two for the election to pass, so that some of the "market forces" back off a little and let things go where they may. For any readers of this blog who have any common sense at all, set your politics aside and vote for the R's. Even if you are a staunch liberal, this whole thing is coming down around us and it has to be slowed down. This insanity needs to be stopped now. Punish the suppressor while you still can. The guy is an idiot, admit your mistake and move on. This is what I do every day after a bad trade. I kick myself for being an idiot, admit I was wrong, and correct my errors the next day.