THE GAME'S A FOOT!
I am not sure if I even spelled that cliche correctly but don't care. Net net, here we go on the pullback, and pre-market today, it looks very powerful. This is what I was referring to yesterday about what might happen. For my own work, today will setup shorts in some places, but I probably need one more day of either sideways to up, to make it really what I am looking for. Here we have a juncture where you just have to pick a side, kinda like politics nowadays. You are either bullish or bearish here. If you are bullish you should have been buying yesterday. I did one long side trade which I will show in a second that I am exiting on today's opening gap up. If you are bearish, this is the beginning of what you should have been waiting for.
Unfortunately since the world is one trade, we have the dollar pullback long, es pullback short, currency pullback shorts etc. all setting up together. If you take them all, be mindful of your risk, they are all going to move together. You will win or lose on all of them, it is unlikely that some will move independent of each other. I am bearish, so I am going to be playing the short side here for all of the reasons I will not go back into today. I have detailed them over the last few days, you can read those posts if you are interested in the reasoning. If this day opens and becomes a 300 point up day, it is likely that some of the short setups will not be there, but I will just have to wait and see what happens.
The majority of the public and investment community is not even considering that there might be a deeper pullback than what we have had, so maybe they are right. I don't compete with them. I trade my own money and put it behind my own studies. If this just lifts off, I will be wrong, just that simple. I will then move on to the next opportunity. I quit trying to be right all the time a very long time ago, it is impossible. Trading is like a round of golf, you don't birdie every hole. You can still have a good score with a few bad holes, you just can't have all bad holes. Sometimes it is hard to accept, especially after having a good run in the markets, that you are going to have a bad streak. However, as you rebound time and time again from them to make new equity highs in your accounts, you will be more accepting of them.
I have chosen to play the short side on this bounce, so in the next couple of days I will place some short bets and hope I don't have too many bad holes and make a few birdies.
Below is the SMH long trade I did enter on the close of Tuesday's session. It was based on a combination of one of my trading patterns, and an ETF strategy out of Larry Connor's latest release. I just took 1000 shares just messing around with this. It is going to make about $500 so slush fund for today's golf game I suppose. These strategies by Larry are terrific and have been about 80% accurate in real time, so I suggest reading his book. I don't like one aspect of them, no stops. You can empirically prove over and over that mechanical methods work better without stops, that is true. However, in real time you can get wiped out without them. Further, it is tough to choose position size when you don't know what your stops are. I just randomly chose 1000 shares thinking I might have to give it $2 worth of room, a $2000 risk.
I guess it is tough to see this chart, I have better charts with genesis but their real time data feed is not real good, and I have it on my notebook computer with has better internet speed with my aircard than what my home satellite gets me. As a result, I don't have charts updated to today on this computer. I doubt I will do many of these types of trades due to the lack of risk control, but I wanted to do one live just for fun, since I "knew" we were going to get a bounce I wanted to have something on the long side.