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Thursday, November 04, 2010

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR






I think it is as clear as can be this new age we live in, just look to the federal government to give us direction for our markets. This is a bad movie we are living in real life. The above two charts show something I have never seen before in all my years of trading and studying charts. Look at the incredible discrepancy between what happened yesterday between the 10 year and 30 year rates. When the Fed minutes were released we had a huge rally in the 10 Year and huge sell off in the 30 Year. Ladies and Gentleman the free markets are gone.

This is what artificially manipulated prices look like on paper in real life. The intervention by the Fed is creating things we have never seen before. I really have no idea how this will all end, but for now it is obvious, just look to buy everything, shorting is just suicide right now. There may come a time for some counter trend shorts for short term trading, but keep them on a short leash. They have started the monster inflation wave so many doomsayers have feared. This leads me to the second point while I am talking about unprecedented events. The doomsayers are right for the first time probably ever that I can think of. We have to give them their due, they have been right all along. Those of us who follow history and look there for a general idea of what is likely to happen next, have been left in the dust.

If you had told me 5 years ago if I would be my life that 5 years in the future we would be looking to the Federal Government for direction on which way to trade the markets, and we would have to ignore everything else, I would have bet my life and would have been gone by now having lost that bet.

Here is what is very good news about this, and I have mentioned this before. We have a pre-determined direction from which to trade, and it is fixed, so not very likely to change. It should be time for us to just clean up now, just buy, buy, buy. It does not matter if it is soybeans, silver, the Canadian dollar, or the SP 500. It is all the same trade and all a long side only affair.

I do think there will come a day when the markets will violently and possibly in a devastating fashion, react back against this. However, the power of the PPT should never be underestimated again. Look what they have been able to accomplish. It took them two years to pull this off, but they have done it. Now, will they be able to reign this in when the inflation wave goes supersonic? That is the million dollar question.

As traders lets just make a bundle of money on the way and deal with that nightmare when it gets here, it could be awhile.

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