Not Alot To Do

This is the SUGAR market and it shows the only trade I have going right now. I went long this market a few days ago where indicated. Today it is also having a nice up day along with everything else across the board so far. During these major bull markets there are often times when there is just nothing to do if you are a short term trader. When we get on runs like we are now where just every single day keeps creeping higher, you have to be very careful of counter trend signals. Many oscillators will diverge when these types of things happen. Trust me, you don't want to act on these divergences unless they are really prominent. I can talk all I want about what is driving this, and I have. It does not really matter, the charts show it all. This is a bull market PERIOD.

This bull market does have nefarious roots without question, but the tape tells it all. With the strong year end seasonal tendency, combined with the FED interventions, it appears likely we will soar into the year end. I think everyone has pretty much realized that all of this is an insiders game and the wall street boys are not going to let the bonuses slip away at the end of the year. If we happen to get any pullbacks, they are buying opportunities.

One of the negatives of being a short term trader is that we trade both sides of markets. When we have these major trend moves that just go one way perpetually, it becomes hard to find trades. We don't get big enough pullbacks for entries, and we can get run over trying to fade the trend. You have to learn to push away from the keyboard and be patient. I always try and keep the thought that all I really need each month is 3 or 4 really good trades, and I make the money I need to make. They can happen at any time, so I try not to force the action. At times in the recent past I have forced the action just to dig myself deep holes to climb out of and that just wears you down over time.

We do have the VIX making another new low here today which has wiped out the divergence in my momentum indicator there. That does make sense since I had said I had never seen a formation of 5 higher lows in it, and now we still don't have that. This is still a short term sell signal, but it has to have actionable price action to go with it to consider shorts, and there is not any of that.

This expanding price action to me in the VIX is interesting, it would not normally support a blow off move like what is occurring here. Of course, alot of things that were formally normal, are not now. I know as long as I trade I will never forget this bull market, it has changed many of the rules forever it appears. I would suggest being very careful about using any trading techniques you have used in the past. Most of the traditional approaches to trading have become worthless in this environment. If you change your approach to just buying anything you look at every time it just makes an hourly low only, you will make money in this market. If you did only that during the prior 200 years, you would be wiped out quickly.

The current move is also getting extended once again, normally reason for pause, but not in this market. It might make sense to look at short setups as traps, and research the times in the past when your sell signals have failed. If you find a sell signal being triggered now and some of the elements from failed signals in the past are there, you might want to use it as a buy signal. We always have to adapt, and that is an example of doing so. You always have to be monitoring how to best trade in each environment that presents itself.

I am still watching the Bond Market closely here for a buy signal due to the massive divergence I showed in the last post. There is still nothing there yet. It will probably be a few days at the soonest before something could develop there. I have drawn in where today's price is, and you can see it has made another new low. I suppose this could be a trap and reverse, but today's range is pretty big so far, so trading above it's high tomorrow is not too likely without an equity crash to trigger that. I think it is likely that I am going to have to wait for a bit longer here for a trade.