YOU JUST CAN'T BEAT HOME COOKIN'

9.8

Must see TV is without a doubt the CNBC panel discussing/reviewing the Non Farm Payrolls data. Today the liberals of course were in shock at the headline number being so weak, and were hinting something was wrong with that number. Might they have been insinuating the number was doctored? Of course they were citing numerous other obviously doctored numbers from other economic reports as to why something was wrong with this number.

You can't have it both ways, they are not doctoring some and not others. All of these numbers are bogus, it is what it is. All you have to do is poke your head into the real world of life other than the Federal Reserve Market ( Previously for years known as the US Stock Market ). Life outside of the monster bull market rally is not good right now. It is pointless to cite any economic reports as reasons why the stock market rises and falls. It is doing so now at the sole discretion of the Federal Reserve.

PERIOD

This is a good scenario in the near term for most people

Rising stock prices make everyone feel a little better about how things are in their life and the Fed is fully aware of this. I wonder if they have an annual awards banquet where they give awards for league leader in saves ( the down days they reverse in the last hour ). They could also give one for highest clocked fastball, to the person who launched the largest futures buy program. Also lowest ERA ( which could be the person overseeing the lowest number of down days in the Dow average. This could really be fun to think about all the awards to give out.

As much as I think Barry and his minions are going to get alot of us killed and make us broke, we cannot solely blame these activities on him. If the other party were in control, the same thing would be happening. There is an arrogance from government that assumes we can't handle the truth, so they do not give it to us. None of these reports are accurate portrayals of reality. As an investor you have to completely ignore all this economic chatter, it has literally nothing at all to do with where stock prices will go. That is being completely determined by the Fed and that direction is up. The only general comment I would make is that more than ever you need to have an exit strategy. When this does end it is not going to be pretty, so a buy and look 5 years from now strategy is probably not going to be a good one. Establish your uncle points, and honor them if we get there. Until that time, enjoy the most unique stock market run in history.

The next thing I want to discuss is the 30 Year Bond Market. There is something very interesting developing in this market right now. I have never seen anything quite like this.

What is unique about this is the incredible amount of POIV divergence that is present in this market. This is an indicator that rarely diverges, and when it does the amounts are subtle. I have never seen an instance where this indicator has been this disparate from the price. This tells me to be very bullish in this market in the near term. Of course the Fed is in the way of this being a really big up move with what they are doing with equities, but this is what it is. I talked about when divergences get really prominent it is correct to trade against trends, and this is surely an example of one of these instances.

Since I am on the topic of divergences, Silver is possibly setting up a big one here, but I cannot tell quite yet whether this third point will form at a lower level yet or not. I just bears watching over the next few days to see if this actually happens.

The trend is strongly up here and Gold may be setting up a buy in the next few days if it pulls back, so I am not overly optimistic this will form up. However, I am watching because these triple divergences often happen at major tops and bottoms. We may just head higher and not form the third lower peak negating this setup, time will tell.

For now until further notice which will be next year, there is no reason to do anything but buy dips in equities and index futures, the Fed is not going to allow this to go down.