MAYBE OR MAYBE NOT A TOP BUT SURELY A MANIA

I read something this morning from someone who has been promoting Gold and Silver for quite some time. He is claiming there is not a Mania going on and when there is that is when we know the top is here. Are you fr.....ing kidding me?

I have friends calling me constantly who have never even studied investing for a single moment asking about Gold and Silver. I have one friend whose psychic is telling her about it. There are stories about a billion and even on trillion dollar transaction that is rumored to be coming, on the long side of these markets. This has anecdotal top written all over it backwards and forwards.

I have no idea what price level will be the back breaker here, only Bernanke knows the answer to that ( or at least the time ), but as I said the other day, when you get into a market phase like what you can see on this chart, this is not a BUY! For Gold sakes people use some common sense. This Weekly chart of Silver looks unlike anything I have ever seen, and that is EVER. Maybe a goofy Internet stock that went bust might have looked like this on a daily chart for a period of time, but this is a weekly chart! Buying something like this here is absolute suicide, and it is a technique that if there is anyone telling you to do so, should be immediately ignored.

It is not a SHORT either, unless you wanted to buy some deep out of the money put options and hope you get lucky. There is no telling what the climax will be, but this sure is one in the making without a doubt. These markets are totally untradeable for short term traders, so I have no way of even considering a trade other than to say that if you are looking to short this, COPPER is the weakest by far, with GOLD being the runner up. We are going to read about some hedge fund someday that made a billion dollars shorting this when it went down just like in Real Estate, but this is a much much bigger bubble than that now. It is going to take more people out trying to short it, than will survive picking this top correctly. I can only hope that somehow I am short this market when this top happens, it is a once in a lifetime money making opportunity but it is going to be near impossible to pull that off.

With all that aside, my hat is off to the GOLD BUGS they have been dead on balls accurate about this market. I never in a million years thought we would see this and I was wrong, dead wrong. Ironically I have made money in these markets even being wrong, so I do not feel so bad, but I have not gotten the meat out of the long side that I should have, not even close.

DON'T BE A PIG

Here is a trade I got into recently in the Hog market. You can see where I shorted this last Friday. My Synthetic indicator was in the sell zone, which got me interested so I began looking at some other things and thought this was worth a play. At the moment I am trailing a stop above and have a few targets in mind, one of course is the March low. I have other ways of exiting as well so we will just have to see where this goes.

The Euro and DX are interesting to me here again, due to what is becoming big time divergence with some of my indicators. Fading trends as we have seen this year is a quick way to bankruptcy, so I urge caution, but I am going to take another shot here soon, on the long side of the DX and short side of the currencies. I will do it with smaller size due to the counter trend nature of the trades.

I just put the basic Stochastic down at the bottom here to show how many oscillators are diverging now in this market. I do not trade off this indicator, I have my own. However, mine does have a similar look at this point to this although not exactly the same. I have put a line projecting price above today's high tomorrow, and you can see the Stochastic turns up if we take out today's high. That is a confirmation for those of you with big ones, to wade in here if you dare on the long side. Obviously, without a stock decline, this market is not going to rally, but stocks are in an area where a dip could happen again now so you just never know.

That's all folks