DISCLAIMER

PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE WHICH APPLIES TO ALL CONTENT IN THIS BLOG AS WELL AS ANY OTHER MATERIAL FROM WE ARE FUTURES TRADERS LLC. READING ANY CONTENT BELOW CONSTITUTES AN AGREEMENT BY ALL READERS THAT THEY HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ALL THAT IS SET FORTH IN THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.


Wednesday, April 20, 2011

THE NEW BUY SIGNAL



I have adjusted the price bar from Monday to show the new signal that has revealed itself. What you need to do is just pick any market anywhere and look for this situation and just blindly buy it. This goes contra to my 28 years of studying the markets, but it is absolutely what you have to do now. We have had yet another overnight explosion up in everything and crunching of the Dollar, and there is not really any reason to believe this is going to end any time soon. We have the strongest bull markets ever and I think now it is prudent to just plain ignore any sell signal of any type in any market. It does not matter how many decades your signals might have worked, they will not now.

Yes I got lucky making some money being short Soybeans recently but I just have to call that a fluke. I have tried sells in other markets and none of them have worked. It is strictly a long side market everywhere so that is what you have to be geared towards. The reasons do not matter, this is what it is. I will not post any more commentary at all on any reason why I think there might actually be a decline anywhere. Even though I have studied some of the things I talk about in here for many many years, they are all ineffective right now. Of course the one exception is the Dollar which trades opposite the stock and commodity markets now, so it is going down.

I strongly suggest now just waiting for minor pullbacks in any market you trade and just buying them. There will come a point at some time when this will change, but now is not a time to try and trade both sides of the markets the trends are just too strong. There is no short side.

I was looking at longs in the Euro, RB, Aussie and Swiss for today, but one of my filters was just not giving me the go ahead unfortunately. As a result I sit here watching another horse leaving the barn, oh well. The good news is that I can now re-launch my stand up comedy career with my one joke, "THE MARKETS WILL HAVE A DOWN DAY ONCE." This is sure to garner huge laughs again and also heckling from the back of the room. If you are the village idiot you should be laughed at. I have been the village idiot this week who did not read the memo. I did not realize you just blindly buy markets that are free falling.

Here is how the Dollar Index looks now and what I find interesting is that my Synthetic indicator is not moving up at all even on this huge down move we are having today. This is one of the reasons I like this work in progress, it just does not blindly go up every time price goes down. It is why it has so much potential. However, I still have not studied it enough to use it to make trades yet. I would normally look that this as a potential trap if it were to reverse tomorrow but this market is just in a free fall now that it recently took out the 2008 lows, so there is really no telling where it will stop. The government is deliberately devaluing this and as we all know they have quite a bit of power to do what they want. I see no reason to buy this here now at all.




I do not have much more to say today than this. My trading has just been awful the last couple of weeks, and I have missed this explosion again to the upside. You always get the honest answers from me and that is why I feel I set myself apart from most people. I don't come on every day and tell you how great I am and how I caught every move and never lost on anything. I am sure some of my readers are trading better than I am right now. I am not trading these markets well at the moment so I am not doing much trading today.

3 comments:

springheel_jack said...

I know exactly how you feel. We had major equity bearish breaks on bonds, copper & EURUSD on Monday. How did we end up here?

A lot of solid technicians watching this in amazement.

JBTFD I guess.

Konrad Sherinian said...

Chris - I've missed a bunch of your posts this year. I caught up with the last couple, and, interestingly, I've had similar experiences - I had a few decent trades (Coffee, 5 year notes, the Yen) and a few real stinkers (cattle, shorting the pound - not allowed in this market, bean oil, selling NG, the $$$) and just am happy that the last few weeks have tread water instead of plummeted down.

Generally, I have been frustrated by the dollar as well, although I am slightly positive from the five (!) stabs I have taken at it. I started moving stops intraday using 600C bars and a very loose trailing stop. I do suspect that when the $$$ finally makes its move, it will be one heck of a run.

I'm not sold on the upside move yet, although it reminds me a lot of the 9/1 move last year. Then, of course, I was absolutely convinced that we were headed up because all of the usual suspects (trend, momentum, volatility, COT, trader sentiment, etc.) indicated risk was to the upside. When I look now, it seems far more balanced, with perhaps a slight downside bias; the VIX is at yearly lows, but the premium on puts to calls is through the roof, trader sentiment is hot, etc.

In any event, aside from the Yen and Bonds/Notes, there is not a whole lot I am excited about. I just hope we get a pullback in so that I can get a winning trade on. I have a trade on today to go long cattle - unlikely it will be filled.

It would be good to hear when you think that the market is out of its funk.

Good luck & good trading.

Konrad

GW said...

I LOVE HONESTY! +1 for you my friend.