SUN DON'T SHINE ON THE SAME DOGS ASS EVERY DAY
My post yesterday that showed Crude and pointed out that my indicator was telling us to look for a sell could not have been much better could it? The Sun did apparently shine on my ass yesterday!
One of the reasons I do this blog is selfish I must admit. It is an attempt by me to establish somewhat of a transparent record that proves I know what I am doing. Even though at times I have made some blunders admittedly, regular readers know that by and large I get things right. This is not a coincidence, I have been at this for a very long time, and I work at this incredibly hard. This is a very challenging business and even the most gifted and skilled people have their off days. If you stick with it and study and just grind grind grind, you can be successful. If you think it is a get rich quick industry, you will find it is also a get poor quick industry.
At this point if you are not already short, you need to look to sell bounces here. This market could drop $80 a barrel in a 6 month period once it gets going. This whole move has been driven by speculators just as many of the commodity bull markets have. When the bear market shows up, there is going to be some fireworks show believe you me!
Is this that point? I have no idea, we won't know that until an obvious break happens. So far this is just a trap above a blow off day, last Friday's move. The one perplexing complex is that of the metals. I am dead convinced these markets are being manipulated on a grand scale since the COT stuff is the exact same as Crude. That is what has led me to not be a believer in the metals markets up here, and I have been wrong. However, when this does come down, it is going to wipe out alot of people. It is by far the most crowded trade in the history of the world. History has not been kind to crowded trades. If it were, everyone would be rich not poor. All you would have to do is wait for an idea to get so popular that your gardener who speaks no English indicates to you in an impossible to understand conversation, that he just bought some Silver. Then you could go out and hock everything you own buying Silver. Then all you would have to do is sit back and get rich with everyone else. Unfortunately, although we all know life does not work this way, it has in the metals markets.
Might there be someone important who knows the world is heavily in this trade and does not want it to go south just yet? I suspect so, but I do not know who that might be. I do know that I have never seen anything like this, and it will be a lesson for history as to how to know when a major top is forming, once it is over. For now, I still maintain that just in the near term, Silver is not a market to be buying up here.
The next chart is that of the Bernanke 500 and you can see something that jumped out at me a few days ago. There is a huge divergence in the POIV indicator that Larry Williams created several years ago. This does not often speak this loudly, when it does we need to listen. It typically just moves along with price.
This certainly does setup the possibility that we are making a big top here, now that in the near term we have failed the old highs, and had a huge divergence in the POIV indicator. As I told readers yesterday, I shorted the Bernanke 100 a few days ago ( The Naz ), due to it's relative weakness in comparison to this. Yes my COT indicator is climbing up into the buy zone here, so who knows if this is as far as we go. The problem with this indicator and why I am not staking more on it so far, is that it tends to move into the opposite zone too fast at times like this. There is no way of knowing if it is doing that here or not and that is why this is a work in progress and probably will be for awhile. I have so many damn goofy ideas that I get pulled in a million directions and become a multi tasker that never finishes any of these research projects.
As for the guy who just tried to get a penis enlargement comment through, you don't get it. I am a commodities trader otherwise known as a Big Swinging Dick. I don't need one!