I'M A SOFTIE
As we stand on the verge of within a day or two almost every market having a sell entry setup, I want to focus on two markets I have talked about in here recently, Sugar and Cocoa. These were both sell setups as I pointed out. I know there was a comment about the Cocoa setup by someone being a buy setup. This is what makes markets. If we all agreed we could not trade. A day does not a trade make, but certainly if you took the Cocoa short, your stop could now be above today's high with very little risk and a potential large gain in front of you. This is what trading as about, trying to catch a large move and managing risk while doing so. Even if this market stops right here, your loss would be very small with a very large gain being possible.
On the top chart you can see I have indicated with a red arrow where I am short Sugar from. This is a market I have been talking about for a few weeks, and mentioned the other day that for the first time I felt it was ready for a short entry.
I think based on Cycles, that Sugar could be a big move, so I am going to try and ride this one, not having a short term target in the market yet, and a trailing stop where I think it needs to be ( not shown ). As I notice my blog getting more popular I have to be a bit careful about stating exactly where my orders are now in advance. I do not want some people "gaming" me on the entries and exits. There is no magic to where you enter, we all make too much of that. It is getting the direction right, then finding a place to hop on board, that will make you money in this business. Trying to find the exact entry point that is perfect, is a waste of time. Trading is nothing more than a series of probes, trying to catch momentum moves in price. The more I trade, the more convinced of that I become.
This Cocoa trade clearly broke the uptrend today, so it is my view if you trade this market the down side was where to be looking coming into today. If you are bullish, I cannot tell you where possible buy points are, perhaps above today's high, since we took out quite a few lows. If it were to reverse immediately tomorrow, that would be a trap pattern, and a legitimate long entry. I am not bullish here so that is not something I am looking at, but thought I would point it out for kicks.
I hear quite a bit of chatter about President Interns speech this week and what it might do to the markets. Who cares? You have to tune out this nonsense. I have not heard a single person who makes money trading for a living, that bases buy and sell decisions on this crap. A reporter who has never traded a stock other than on a tip from a neighbor, in which he lost 50%, is not worth listening to.
It does appear to me that the following markets appear to be a day or two away from sell signals. In no particular order, Silver, ES, Copper, the Grains, Coffee ( possibly needs more than a few days ), Crude Oil, Cotton ( now ), and several currencies. These are all based on some proprietary short term indicators that I do not who here and are not necessary for you to see anyway. There is no holy grail. We all have our own techniques and for all I know some of my readers have tools as good or better than I do. It is managing your emotions and the trades once you get in them that will separate you. You do have to have a decent base for making decisions, but once you have that focus on execution and staying the course.
It appears that the safe haven Swiss Franc is now off the can't be broken list. I have never seen a day like that in a currency ever, what a move. As has been the case historically, so it will be now, Bonds will be the most reliable safe haven if this whole ponzi scheme implodes.
This is all I have now and what I am looking at, so the next few days could be very busy. If any of these entries setup correctly for me I will show what I am doing more or less, while protecting my interest the best I can while doing so. I think some of my readers are just entering things at the market when me or some other guru calls out setups, and that is very dangerous. You have to have some trigger other than somebody else's views on things. Setups can be in place for weeks before the anticipated moves take place. Anyone reading here or anywhere else has to have their own plan for execution.
Remember even though this is a novel concept in today's world, but you are actually responsible for your own actions. It is your money, be smart about what you are doing.