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Wednesday, September 14, 2011


TOUGH TIMES


As weeks go I would be hard pressed to find one that has been worse than this one has been and this chart above is a fair depiction of the ups and downs I have had. Computer problems are always a pain in the ass and we all have had them so I will not dwell on that. We can see with the SP 500 chart above the brilliant save by the PPT the other day when it looked like we were really going to roll over. I was heavily short at the time, and kept my stop back because I was really looking for a big decline due to seasonals and cycles and my indicators all being lined up pointing downward.

Alas, our good old friends who have been conspicously absent in recent weeks showed up in the last hour that day and created the moonshot that we have seen. I wound up with just slightly better than a break even trade, except a few stocks that I saw this reversal developing in and front ran the exits and made some money. I just never saw a logical target in the trade even though at one point I was up over 50 ES points per contract. Some trades just are no good, what can I say. I did say I thought getting that next sell was going to be very tricky, and that turned out to be correct.

Once they established that floor there has been a steady bid under the market on the intraday charts. Every time it looked like we might break, the market reversed back up again. I don't really see that as the PPT, they just had that one appearance in my opinion. Every up move is not the government manipulating prices, it is obvious when a huge decline out of the blue reverses in the last hour of a trading day. That is the CSI teams evidence they look for. When a day just stays strong right from the get go or meanders around then goes, that is generally not our good friends playing. We now find ourselves on the verge of a very nice looking upward breakout on the daily chart. It was interesting today that we were comfortably above that trend line until the very end of the day when we dropped off to close back below it. If we get clear of it we could have a good 50 SP points before we hit my resistance levels which are in the 1250 area at the moment. I do not think sells are lined up at the moment, so I am on the sidelines waiting to see if we get to 1250 where I will be looking.





I mentioned that I was short in the Grains, and here is a Soybean Oil chart showing one of those trades. I am surprised with the big stock reversal we have seen that the Grains and a few other markets have stayed very weak. Copper in particular went down a good bit while stocks rallied today, which is somewhat unusual. Maybe we are finally reaching a point where individual complexes will trade on their own, but I am not sold yet. We have had a couple of decoupling attempts that have failed, so this is in a show me situation right now.

Sadly, the next picture is that of the greatest loss in my life that I have ever suffered. Although this is a trading blog, it is also my forum to put out my thoughts, and occasionally I feel compelled to stray a bit. My puppy Reggie died tragically out of the blue this week at the age of 2, and this puts a hole in my heart I cannot describe. I will try and stay on top of my game here for this blog but I cannot promise anything. This is going to take me awhile to get over his loss if I ever do. He was such a sweet soul and was completely fine one day and gone two days later.

Please take the time to smell the roses, none of us are guaranteed tomorrow, so enjoy those who matter to you as much as you can every day of your life. If you are so inclined say a prayer for him, he was a special guy whose life was cut tragically short. I will love him forever.




Sorry for the somber thoughts but I owe it to him to do this. I am thrilled to get some of the emails and comments that tell me that some of you are really benefitting from my commentaries and making some very good profits. In a down moment like this that tells me I am making a difference, and that is all I ever wanted to do.

Good Trading to Everyone

11 comments:

Alain said...

Sorry for your dog!!

I know you was waiting for N'gas, broke the downsloping TL from $5, higher lows on both side of low. May be a correction required here to test breakout.

Alain

Anonymous said...

So sorry to hear about Reggie!

Anonymous said...

Poor Reg--hang in Chris--we are with you!!

Yves said...

What a pity for Reggie, especially as he was so young, and despite all the love and care..

editor said...

Sorry for your loss. A Dog is the closest friend to have. We lost our golden ret. last thanksgiving. Just keep remembering the great home you gave Reggie. So many dogs don't have that warm comfortable home. Big Slobbery Dogs are the best. After you settle out, consider helping a rescue and foster a dog. It is the most rewarding thing you can do.

Check for a rescue for your favorite breed like the one below near your home. Even an overnight foster does the mind good.

http://gcgrr.org/available.htm

Chris Johnston said...

Thanks for all the nice comments and emails. I think some of you are newer to my blog and don't realize that all my dogs are rescues, even Reggie. I had 6 rescue dogs ( 5 St Bernards and one Newfoundland ) and have lost 2 recently including Reggie. Also one of our 3 horses is a rescue. I also donate quite a bit of money to supporting animal rescues, all my charitable work is in that area. There is nothing more gratifying than seeing a living soul with no hope have their life resurrected, and we see that over and over with our animals. It is spending time with the ones that we have that is getting me through this. This loss is hitting me so hard because of how young he was, not even mature, and we was such a great energy boost to our older dogs. We have lost so many after having them for short periods and nursing them back to health and good spirits, it never gets any easier, but it is our way of giving back to the world.

Thanks for bringing up the rescue topic and I hope other readers if they are inclined to have a pet, look there first. There are wonderful animals everywhere that have been abandoned due to the economy, I wish I could save all of them.

I got to the www.theanimalrescuesite.com every day and click on the button that registers with food companies that donate food to animal shelters, save it in your favorites and click there every day.

I have not gone long Natural Gas yet even though we have moved up a little, I just have not seen what I deem to be a good entry pattern yet but I am watching every day for one.

Anonymous said...

Chris,
WOW! What a terrific posting.
I’ve only been reading the blog for about 3 months and have observed that some times you come across as a crusty ole curmudgeon and then this posting today shows the real Chris Johnston.

Quite by accident I found the December 5, 2010 blog when searching for info on POIV. In that blog you talked about Boomer, your favorite dog of all time that you had lost and that showed a side of you that gladly surprised me. It appears from the blogs that you must have replaced Boomer in your life with Reggie only to have a similar misfortune. Were they related? Another puppy always heals the heart but sadly yours was broken again. It may not be your circumstances but sadly there is a lot of inbreeding going on in kennels these days (aka Puppy mills) and invariably it seems to result in health issues for the offspring.

I know your pain as I lost my last best friend dog, ironically while living in San Diego; I cried for a week as she was my life. My entire schedule revolved around her needs. Having one of her puppies around (I gave one to my best friend) helped ease the pain and even though time heals all but I must admit I still think about her and what a character she was. Now even her puppy has passed.

Living circumstances prohibited me from having another dog until recently and I am about to test the theory “third time is the charm” and wish I had been able to sooner. I hope you are considering the same especially with as much space as you seem to have at your residence in the San Diego area (I surmise you are in the hills around Rancho Sante Fe/Palomar.)

Anyway it was great to learn of that side of your personality and I also loved hearing about the animal rescue efforts you and your wife are involved in. Take all the time you need for the healing process which goes as its own pace; the blog is secondary. There is more to life than making money.
Take Care
Don in Virginia

Chris Johnston said...

Don, thanks for the nice message. I have made a mistake getting too caught up in politics recently, and I am done with that. Some of that unfortunately has portrayed me most likely in the wrong light. I am not sure if it is current things that are doing it or just that the media coverage now is so detailed that we know way more than we used to. In any event, just like with emails some times, hard print can come across in ways we don't intend it to.

We have lost at least a dozen dogs since we have been doing rescues, and I still think about all of them on most days. Boomer was the Lion King and not related to Reggie other than they both came from the same rescue in Nevada, one that I support and we know the people who run it quite well. Boomer was the most unique dog I will ever have out of a rescue, being a champion dog that inexplicably wound up there. He died of bone cancer and the heartbreak with that is that it appeared for a few months that I had actually cured it with some of the supplements I take that I gave him. I had the doctors mystified and even tried to go public with it thinking I could help others, but was shut down. The sad truth is that cancer cures are bad for business and pharma companies will do everything they can to suppress any breakthoughs. They make far more money selling drugs to manage things than they would to cure things. Unfortunately it came back and got him.

It is people like Lori and Ken Juenke who run that St Bernard resuce that are true heroes, I don't know how they do it. They live in a very small home, and have so many dogs they take care of it is just incredible. When I visit them it brings me to tears just from seeing what they do to try and help.

I am sure if I ever do a post on what not to do I am in violation of it now trading, I can barely see the screen through my tears so I probably should not be trading but I did make some money yesterday and my day trading is somewhat mechanical so I am giving it a go.

Thanks again for the nice message

Anonymous said...

Chris,
My brother lives in Nevada and his son used to work for a kennell and wants to find another. Maybe your friends in NV is a place to start.Can you send me an email address or physical address of their NV location.
My email is sunstonecorp@comcast.net
Thanks
Don

Squire said...

I so appreciate you telling about bad trades.

There are writers out there that never have a loss. So if they lie about that, then what of what they say can one learn from as you never know the truth.

mattarazi said...

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Day Trading