THE SUN DID RISE TODAY
As I went to bed the other night I was not sure the sun would rise the next day, and did not care. I was as down as I have been ever in my life from the loss of my dog. One of the things we have as humans is resiliency and we live to fight another day. I have such a good life and many things to be thankful for, and I feel bad that I lose sight of that from time to time. I have exposed a lot of my personal life here which is never an easy thing to do especially as I have readers here from countries all over the world. However, the easiest thing to do in life is to be yourself, and that is what I do for better or worse.
Since the blog is somewhat of an inner monologue I guess some things just come out since I shoot straight from the heart when I post things. The chart above is a weekly chart of Sugar, a market I had been bearish in and it just has never really come down much. The cyclical period for a decline has passed which was also lined up with the seasonal, and we have barely dipped. Now we find ourselves in a seasonal up period which also happens to be in sync with some bigger picture cycles, and we do have a clear uptrend still intact on the charts. It is for this reason that I am now looking upward here. I have a trend line drawn in, and I think this market is basically a buy as long as it stays above it, and it short if it breaks down below it. I can argue this market in either direction, but I do think the preponderance of the evidence points upward. My short term indicators also have both buy and sell signals, so the market could be straddled to some degree.
I have to admit that I am unclear in my view here, so usually when I feel that way I do not trade it until it becomes clear to me. I am undecided here, but wanted to give this update, since I had been bearish here and the market never really went down. I made a small gain on a short I had, but not enough for my monthly dog food bill ( not a small amount ).
Here we have the Sp 500 Weekly chart which shows that even in spite of this significant rally, the down trend is still clearly in place. You can see that my bands are in the 1251 area which is why I mentioned 1250 the other day as a general area where I will be looking for sells if we get that high. I do not know if we will or not. Something interesting does seem to be happening here in that an inverse stock market trade is developing in commodities. For the last 2 years you could have looked at Soybeans, a currency, of Crude, and they all looked the same as the ES chart. The stock market was driving everything in the world almost tick for tick. It appears now that we almost have the contra trade to that going on, very odd in my opinion. This makes me suspicious of this stock market rally. If we are really inflating again, why are hard commodities deflating? This makes me think we are still in a sell the bounce in stocks scenario, but I do not have any short term entries that are even close to being there at the moment.
Here is a trade that is setting up, a short in Unleaded Gas. RB as it is known for it's symbol with Genesis, has gone from being the strongest of this complex to the weakest pretty quickly and now appears to be in a look for a short entry situation. We have the down seasonal period approaching, and the cycles that I study are very prominently down, so even though my synthetic COT indicator is saying buy, the rest says to sell. Net net, I am looking for shorts here.
Nat Gas got clobbered today further clouding that picture in my mind. I do think Cattle and Cotton are setting up sells potentially one day next week. I also think the Bond market is getting close to a big top here. It may be a couple more weeks for Bonds but something big is brewing here I think on the short side.
Good Trading and have a wonderful weekend