Yesterday I hit a milestone, the traffic in the blog passed 100,000 visitors. This was just in total not one day like I am sure many of the other blogs routinely bypass. I am a small town Midwestern boy with humble beginnings, so I guess I am easily thrilled. However since it does appear that the number of returning visitors is increasing steadily, the content must not be too bad in spite of all the Gold bugs wondering when I am finally going to get it. Speaking of that, the Gold orders I placed yesterday to short were never filled since the market took off to the up side. It appears to me now that once again Silver has taken over the weaker position from Gold, so I will try and short that market tomorrow if we break down. Today the range from yesterday is just too big to sell below in my opinion, even if it were to be breached. I am sure the people who think Gold is a buy every time a blade of grass grows are just rolling their eyes again at me trying to short this sucker. So be it. I follow my rules and they say to sell. When they say to buy, I will buy.
I am currently reading the book AMERICAN SNIPER the incredible autobiography of Navy Seal Chris Kyle. I always felt that was one potential alternate road for me that I never went down. I have no idea whether I would have made it or not, but the level of discipline required is something I definitely have in spades. This is an amazing book, I suggest reading it. This guy is what America is all about and he makes me proud to be an American.
You can see the Commercials have been steady sellers of this market recently, and Sentiment also got too bullish at the recent high. What can I say, this is a sell setup whether it works or not. One thing people can learn from this is that I stick to my guns, to my rules. They do not always work, but my track record proves they work well enough over time. I don't start jumping around every time I take a loss or miss a move. That will insure you will chase your tail your whole life. Yes minor adjustments are constantly made, that is part of adapting. However, when I see this type of thing going on it does tell me that on average, the next large move should be down. Therefore, I want to look to the short side.
The next chart looks pretty similar, and it is of the Copper trade I got stopped out of for a small gain of only $1312 per contract. You can see the setup looks very similar to that of Silver. This one looked for a while like it was going to be a big fish, but as often is the case, there is a first retracement of the new down trend. We have had so many V tops and bottoms recently, that I took this thinking that we might get another one but it was not to be. This is still a sell setup on this bounce, so I am looking for another way in here.
The last chart shows something unusual that happened in the currencies. The three strongest ones broke down and the two weakest ones the Swiss and Euro held up. I don't recall ever seeing this happen before like this and I do not have an explanation. The markets are full of random activity so perhaps this is just more of that.
We do appear to be putting in a short term top in stocks here right on schedule with the mystery forecast chart. That thing never ceases to amaze me with it's accuracy. I did mention I am looking for a way into the short side here but have not taken the plunge yet.