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Friday, February 03, 2012

ONE FOR THE GIPPER



A strong NFP report has accelerated the moonshot into Ludicrous Speed ( a line from my favorite movie Space Balls ). You can see from this chart this incredible vertical ascent in the Naz. In my world this is simply impossible to trade. I basically do two things. One, look for setup markets that are reversing, and try to get on board early. Two, trade pullbacks in trends. Neither of those is happening in many markets right now since so many cue off the US Stock Market. I have to chill out and realize that I just cannot make the money I am used to making, in these types of market conditions. This is why I am focusing quite a bit on day trading. It gives me opportunity to ring the register when I am sitting on my hands in other places.

In Larry Williams forecast for this year in stocks, he had plotted a map well researched, for the course of stocks this year. I am sure some of my readers purchased that. It is a must have for me every year. This year he had the main forecast and a Plan B if we just went straight up right from the get go. It certainly appears we are headed to Plan B. I will not reveal what that is out of respect for Larry. He is doing a webinar this weekend so I would assume he will address that. 

One thing I have learned and I still seem to try and find ways around it for some reason, is that I don't step in front of trends in either direction. I do at times try to play reversals, but not from situations like this. This market has been extremely overbought for a while now and keeps on chuggin. The trend is up on all time frames, so there is no reason at all to try and pick a top. For all we know this goes right to 15,000 in the DOW. If you look back at prior market periods like 1995 where we started off like this, it just kept going. We have virtually 0% interest rates, and that is as bullish for stocks as you can get. The next chart which is the VIX is not giving us anything at all in the way of a signal in either direction.




We are tracking just in the middle here with my indicator, and the price of the vix is also not at an extreme, so there is no signal to buy or sell. If you are long stay long and start sizing up the new boat and SUV, maybe also the Florida condo that you buy with your credit line that you flip for 200k profit in 6 months. We appear to be back to boom times and everything is mas fina! I have been wrong about a correction coming, plain and simple. This is the risk you run doing something like this blog. When you are wrong you are a moron in multiple languages. I am glad my sis did not take my up on the IQ challenge over politics!

I would bet my life that the unemployment rate will be under 8% by election time regardless of what it takes to either legitimately get it there, or you use creative score keeping to post a number. It is starting to feel to me like Barry part Deux is in the works, just my gut nothing else. When I hear him at a prayer speech take a shot at the rich even in that, I am just astonished that the class warfare approach is working. However, I have seen in my own life many examples of people rooting against those more accomplished than they are, so it should not completely surprise me. I think we just have to go down the road of where this will take us, for these folks to learn the hard way.

I am pretty sure poor people don't hire many folks. A rich person may not, there is no guarantee of that either, but at least he has the ability to do so if properly motivated. If my taxes get raised I will give less to charity and spend less of course. You either have to be a moron, or a very wealthy person not to do so. If I am to be chastised for having had some success in life, I will not just take that laying down and I don't think others will either. Most people have good in their hearts and do the right thing. However, If I am to be singled out as being in a group that is bad because I have some money, the people singling me out are not going to like what they get back from me I can promise that. Motivating the smartest people to fight against you is not a very good plan in my opinion. By and large with exceptions obviously, the accomplished are the most intelligent. They will figure a way around the penalties bestowed upon them.

My other business interests are showing some life, that they have not shown in a while, so I do think things are improving some overall. I don't think the boom times being shown by stock prices are a true reflection of the overall economic status, but as I have told people over and over, they rarely are.

I may cut back on my posting frequency until something changes. It is hard for me to post good content or trade setups when the market just goes the same direction virtually every single day. 

Have a nice weekend - Bored former active trader OUT!




8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think we just have to go down the road of where this will take us, for these folks to learn the hard way.<<

Amen brotha--it will be interesting to see how the approach of **Bulding America One Food Stamp At a Time** works out. Have they check this out with our Eastern brethern? :)

Don in Virginia said...

Chris
I purchased Larry's Cycle Forecast and as you know in it he gives dates that he expects Rallies or Declines in stocka, bonds and gold.
So far he is 2 of 3 in stocks, 3 of 3 in gold and 3 of 3 in bonds with today being a whopper of a down day in bonds when the Jobs Report was released. Sure wish I had been short but one of my rules in to be flat when that report comes out - way too unpredictable.
A testimony to Larry's work. I agree with you, everyone should have this forecast.

John M said...

There has always been resentment of the wealthy and that's perfectly understandable considering the role envy plays in too many people's lives. I think there's great resentment now of people who are not perceived as 'self made' men or women, who had a lot handed to them or piled up a lot of money in probably legal but currently reprehensible ways, especially where bailout money was concerned. Then there's that old joke about GW Bush, that he was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.

I don't think you're correct in the way you explain the situation. People don't hate the successful, they just feel beleaguered because a bigger portion of their money has to go to taxes than it does for people who have a crapload lot of more money. The 'class warfare' does exist to some degree, but you might be misinterpreting a longtime American sense of fairness for something else. Taxes on the wealthiest people in this country are lower now than they've ever been in my lifetime, so it's kind of hard to accept that somehow if they have to cough up a few more percent everything will go to hell. Somehow, miraculously, charities got money, jobs were created (and many more than in the past decade of very low upper bracket taxes), businesses flourished...and all with income tax rates way higher for the wealthy.

I think pretty much all of us resent paying taxes, especially when we personally disagree with how they're often spent. I just don't think people are anti-success or anti-wealth, they just want people who are much better off than they are to pitch in a little more, at a level that's closer to what the middle class does. If I were you, I wouldn't want to do it, either...hell, I don't want to do it, myself! But I can understand why some people feel as they do. It's not a penalty on success, it's more getting the scales back into balance. If we could drop taxes on everyone else to where they effect people as little as taxes effect the wealthy, that would do it, too. But the drastic reduction in services and programs that would take might cause the kind of uprising that none of us want to see. You think Barry is a socialist...if we get another FDR in office, you'll really go bonkers.

Interesting that the metals today are not tracking with the big stock whoop dee doo. Have to keep an eye on that in case it starts developing into your trade of the century gold/silver short.

Thanks for putting up with my long blah blahs. You always make me think, and that's what happens when I think....lol. Great trading to ya.

Anonymous said...

While stocks are booming today, Gold tanked big time- which is not expected given their strong correlation. How about looking for a short there? Do you think this is a sign that the markets may be finally decoupling from ES?

Anonymous said...

Shouldn't we reconvene on or before Feb 24th based on the mystery forecast? It makes some sense, pump til then, dump greek default news (for real), 2 months of drop/consolidation then buy in May and go away for the the obama inspired bullgasm, pick-up a second condo in FL for xmas then try to flip in a week before the SHTF - Enjoy your posts, have a great weekend - Chris C

Anonymous said...

Eurodollar COT Indication Calls For Big Stock Market Top Now

http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/charts/weekly/ED-COT_2012.gif

rotrot

futures trading said...

I agreed with you that the Presidential Election this year and the state of the economy (probable QE3) are two important factors on the movement of the markets this year.

Markets seem to be directionless for last week.

When I studied the COT for last week, I was surprised to find both gold and US dollar index with lots of longs loaded.

People are moving to safe havens assets.

Chris Johnston said...

I wish I had an answer for the dilemma facing all of us in the US but I do not. I don't expect or what anything to ever be given to me. I think if everyone had that attitude which they don't, we could solve this problem pretty easily. I do understand why a UAW worker who has been able to go to work drunk at GM for decades, and has boats and cars and a nice weekend place on a lake due to the 6 figure earnings they have would not want to give that up. I grew up with people like this in Michigan so I know it to be true.

John, I find myself in Sean Hannity's shoes and his relationship with Beckel the liberal. I just can't help but like you even though we are on completely different political continents. There is a quality in your posts that makes me think you are a very nice guy. I do think the W talk is long since blase, how long can he be blamed?

I don't recall a president ever blaming a predecessor in my lifetime, and this pansy still can't get over him. Barry must be like chief inspector dreyfuss was with Clouseau!

John, here is the main problem and this is a stat from the IRS. 47% of people in the US pay no taxes. If you want me to pay more, then the low end has to pay some, deal? This same 47% benefits from services that they don't pay one single cent for. I will help people who need it if I can all day long until some politician tells me I have to do it.

I have now come to the conclusion that I have to leave San Diego due to the liberal politics of this state and what is going to come from them, and that is really a bummer. I have not decided where to go yet or when, but the what has been decided. They are debating a rail line out here that has such an astronomical bill, and they think it can be paid for by a local Cap and Tax bill! There is no question that taxes which are already over 50% here in my bracket, will go substantially up. Who in their right mind would put up with paying more than half of what they earn in taxes? Lets just reform to a flat tax with no deductions, that would be fair. The low end will pay some, the rich people would pay more than they do now due to the deductions being gone. That would be fair. How is it fair that someone who works hard to earn more should pay for those who don't?

The Euro model is calling for a top soon, so we will have to see what is cooking on the charts once we get there. I will be looking for sells when we get there.

Don, glad to hear you bought his forecast. It is amazing how accurately some of the highs and lows are in these things.