ONE FOR THE GIPPER
A strong NFP report has accelerated the moonshot into Ludicrous Speed ( a line from my favorite movie Space Balls ). You can see from this chart this incredible vertical ascent in the Naz. In my world this is simply impossible to trade. I basically do two things. One, look for setup markets that are reversing, and try to get on board early. Two, trade pullbacks in trends. Neither of those is happening in many markets right now since so many cue off the US Stock Market. I have to chill out and realize that I just cannot make the money I am used to making, in these types of market conditions. This is why I am focusing quite a bit on day trading. It gives me opportunity to ring the register when I am sitting on my hands in other places.
In Larry Williams forecast for this year in stocks, he had plotted a map well researched, for the course of stocks this year. I am sure some of my readers purchased that. It is a must have for me every year. This year he had the main forecast and a Plan B if we just went straight up right from the get go. It certainly appears we are headed to Plan B. I will not reveal what that is out of respect for Larry. He is doing a webinar this weekend so I would assume he will address that.
One thing I have learned and I still seem to try and find ways around it for some reason, is that I don't step in front of trends in either direction. I do at times try to play reversals, but not from situations like this. This market has been extremely overbought for a while now and keeps on chuggin. The trend is up on all time frames, so there is no reason at all to try and pick a top. For all we know this goes right to 15,000 in the DOW. If you look back at prior market periods like 1995 where we started off like this, it just kept going. We have virtually 0% interest rates, and that is as bullish for stocks as you can get. The next chart which is the VIX is not giving us anything at all in the way of a signal in either direction.
We are tracking just in the middle here with my indicator, and the price of the vix is also not at an extreme, so there is no signal to buy or sell. If you are long stay long and start sizing up the new boat and SUV, maybe also the Florida condo that you buy with your credit line that you flip for 200k profit in 6 months. We appear to be back to boom times and everything is mas fina! I have been wrong about a correction coming, plain and simple. This is the risk you run doing something like this blog. When you are wrong you are a moron in multiple languages. I am glad my sis did not take my up on the IQ challenge over politics!
I would bet my life that the unemployment rate will be under 8% by election time regardless of what it takes to either legitimately get it there, or you use creative score keeping to post a number. It is starting to feel to me like Barry part Deux is in the works, just my gut nothing else. When I hear him at a prayer speech take a shot at the rich even in that, I am just astonished that the class warfare approach is working. However, I have seen in my own life many examples of people rooting against those more accomplished than they are, so it should not completely surprise me. I think we just have to go down the road of where this will take us, for these folks to learn the hard way.
I am pretty sure poor people don't hire many folks. A rich person may not, there is no guarantee of that either, but at least he has the ability to do so if properly motivated. If my taxes get raised I will give less to charity and spend less of course. You either have to be a moron, or a very wealthy person not to do so. If I am to be chastised for having had some success in life, I will not just take that laying down and I don't think others will either. Most people have good in their hearts and do the right thing. However, If I am to be singled out as being in a group that is bad because I have some money, the people singling me out are not going to like what they get back from me I can promise that. Motivating the smartest people to fight against you is not a very good plan in my opinion. By and large with exceptions obviously, the accomplished are the most intelligent. They will figure a way around the penalties bestowed upon them.
My other business interests are showing some life, that they have not shown in a while, so I do think things are improving some overall. I don't think the boom times being shown by stock prices are a true reflection of the overall economic status, but as I have told people over and over, they rarely are.
I may cut back on my posting frequency until something changes. It is hard for me to post good content or trade setups when the market just goes the same direction virtually every single day.
Have a nice weekend - Bored former active trader OUT!