One of my favorite phrases that is going around right now is "don't be that guy." Some loudmouth in a local bar kept saying that to a buddy of mine recently, who was an ex linebacker. He just kept repeating it over and over. This buddy of mine is a pretty calm happy go luck sort, but everyone has their limits. He is also a great looking guy the girls always love. This moron had obviously singled him out for some unknown reason, who would pick on the biggest guy in the place? When I looked at Vinny laying on one of the dog beds in my foyer the other day, I noticed he almost matched the color of my Travertine stone floors. For some reason the thought of "don't be that guy" came to me. Obviously it was a different context than the first scenario. In this case it was a mesh I had to clean up and believe me he was much dirtier than he looked like here.
In the first tale above, things ultimately ended badly for the local loudmouth, and I suspect he won't use that phrase much in the future. In the second instance, it ended ok for Vinny but not for me. He made a huge mess that took hours to clean up. The point is generally the phrase does ring true to some degree. You don't want to be that guy doing the wrong thing constantly. It is easy to become that guy when money is involved. It is so important in our lives that it makes us do the damndest things.
This above graph shows the days of the week, and what happens just selling the open every day in the ES. You can clearly see that Friday is the best day to be a seller in this market. It is really the only one that really makes any money to speak of. I know from personal experience, that some of the largest market declines have occurred on Friday's, so this gives me some graphic proof of this. This certainly does not mean you just blindly go out and short all Friday's, I would never do that. What it does tell me though is that if I get something going to the downside on Friday, I have a better chance of it becoming something big, than the other days of the week. If I pair that with today, also being one of the two best sell days of the month for the ES, it tells me if I get a trend change to down on the intra day charts, that I need to look for an entry on the short side. Will this happen? I doubt it, but you have to be prepared in advance for when something that does have some bias, might be developing. At press time here before the open, it does not appear to be in the works, but who knows what will happen.
Don't be that guy who is not prepared!
I mentioned Natural Gas, and here is the trade I made yesterday. I said I was looking to buy it and I did. Do not get hung up with the Bollinger Bands, I don't use them they were just on this chart setting I put this on. This is an extremely over sold market, the biggest down trend on the board. It has meandered around here for a few week down at the lows and appears to be making a breakout upward. We will just have to see how far it goes. It could be another false breakout that turns right back down. I am on for the ride now one way or another. I am off the ride on the next chart.
Here is the chart of Gold and my attempt #1 to short it. I took a small loss as indicated. I will look for another entry in the next few days. If we were to close up today and Monday, that could make this prime for another shot. 0 for 1 so far trying to catch a down move.
I read trading books just like everyone else, and I found the following quote out of Elder's "THE NEW SELL AND SELL SHORT."
You can hear the market bell when you recognize and event or a series of events so far outside of the norm that it may seem as if the laws of the market have been repealed. In fact the laws of the market cannot go away, no more than the law of gravity can. They can be only temporarily suspended during a bubble, creating an illusion that normal rules no longer apply. The markets do not exist to put money in the pockets of amateurs.
You tell me where this phrase most correctly applies to the futures markets? Where are most amateurs making their bets right now?............
Have a nice weekend