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Thursday, April 12, 2012

500k, April 27th, Same Old Movie



If the Next Bar's Open is 140^02 through 140^13 then...
Place the following order(s)...

To Enter Long:     BUY 1 Contract at 140^14 STOP
         (Rule:  "CJ #03")

If entry is filled, cancel all other existing orders and place the following order(s)...
To Exit Long:     SELL 1 Contract at 138^26 STOP
         (Rule:  "Exit Long: Stop Loss")

This was the orders tab for the Bond System tomorrow. We opened at 140'14 which is why the chart says no orders on it, the opening condition for the trade was not met. This is how these types of things work. You just blindly like a drone follow the rules. Hopefully we will get a trade soon to do here.

The topic of todays post is a pot pourri of things. First the 500k. I just saw a run down on Fox of the biggest spenders in Congress on mailings. The leader was a Democrat from New York, and he spent just under 500k in mailings last year. Here is the best part. The bulk of his mailings were about how against irresponsible spending he is! You just can't write comedy any better than that. Can you imagine spending a half a million bucks telling everyone you don't spend money! I laughed for 30 minutes over that one.

The date of the award ceremony on the floor of the Merc for the Robbins contest from last year is set for April 27th. They are flying me back and putting me up and a nice hotel for this gig and it should be quite interesting. They have the press room reserved for a full day just for us, and apparently a couple of financial reporters who I am supposed to know but have never heard of are going to be doing interviews. I see myself as the Happy Gilmore of this group and will act accordingly! I do get to start trading the house account where I get a 20% cut of the profits pretty soon. What they are trying to do there is find the next star I would assume, and then market to clients to put money into trading programs. I am not sure where if anywhere this will take me but it should be fun. I had to sign a waiver on my rights to the video of the ceremony and interviews, no big deal to me. I will give a summary of the event once I get back.

It is starting to look like the same movie is coming back out again like another Titanic re-release with the stock market. We exploded today, and like many of these other deep pullbacks, this one is starting to look like it was a fake, and we are going right back up. My short term indicators are telling me not to sell a break of today's low tomorrow, and that is what has happened in the past as we just soared back up again time and time again. Maybe after tomorrow's close this will change for Monday but for now that is how it looks, higher.




As you can see we are still above the Intermediate low from a couple of months ago, and nothing bad will happen as long as that holds. What is bothersome is the high level of Small Spec longs in gray on the chart from the COT data. You can see they have not been this bullish at any point on this chart, that is bearish. My Synthetic COT indicator has drifted into the buy zone in Green above. I am not sure what to do here, but I have nothing either way for tomorrow. My gut tells me this bounce is still a sell, but my indicators are not supporting that feeling, nor are they saying buy it, so nada for me Friday.

In what is no surprise at all in the world of one trade, is that many other markets from energies to currencies, are in exactly the same state. They are rallies against short term down trends, and it is tough to tell if they are sells or we are going right back up again. I am debating how candid I want to be about this in any interviews in Chicago that take place. I will probably bite my tongue since I don't want to open up a can of worms for myself from politicians and bureaucrats.




Here is the Sugar market which is setup for a sell in my view. We have the commercials short, the small specs long and price rolling over. I think if we get one more bar up this is a sell for Monday. I mentioned RB the other day as a sell, the next chart shows the trade I did there which turned out lousy.




This trade looked like it was dynamite for a while then turned around and I took a measly couple hundred points out of it. I did not expect much out of it but thought it was worth a shot.

I wish I had more, but everything is still trading basically the same as the indexes, and the indexes are unclear for Friday. As a result, so is everything else.

Good Trading







8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,
You are showing your short trade entry point on RB chart. Any particular reason why there? - before the brake of the trendline

botz said...

I'm keeping a close eye on the soybean market to short... any thoughts?

Chris Johnston said...

RB was just the Larry Williams sell below the low of the day before a reversal bar if it gets taken out. In this case it was above where the trend line is by a little.

Beans - too strong of a trend for me to short at the moment

John M said...

I wanted to know who the schmuck was who spent all that money on mailings, so I looked up last year's spending for New York congressfolks.

http://rocdocs.democratandchronicle.com/database/congressional-franking

No half a million in this list, but some pretty hefty tabs nonetheless.

In the course of my Googling, I ran across some Republican down in Tennessee who spent 220k on mailings just from October to December last year. Cripes, do they even have that many people in Tennessee?

And beans...yeah, they are mighty these days. I'd wait and watch for a sure sign they're starting a correction. Scared of soybeans...that's a new one!

Anonymous said...

Chris
In the comments on Bonds you said it opened at 40-14. That was the 6 PM EDT open on Thursday evening, correct?
So does this mean you are taking signals and entering basically off of the electronic opening?
Thanks
Don

Chris Johnston said...

John the list I saw had the top guy at about 480k I rounded it up to 500k, the top 10 were all dems, 220k would not even have been an honorable mention, I think the 10th position was still well over 300k. Even 220k is absurd, all these people should be fired. We obviously are looking at different lists.

I am beginning to believe on some level they are trying to crash the system to make us all more dependent on government.

Michael Tredr said...

wow! that's awesome to hear about your awards event. i'll be looking forward to the recap. do you think some parts of it will end up on youtube?

Chris Johnston said...

yes probably although our world is kind of small in terms of people that are interesting in stuff like this as opposed to a celeb nipple slip etc..