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Monday, April 16, 2012

FIRST THINGS FIRST




The Bond trade is still going since it did not open this afternoon > 114'20. You can see the stop on the screen and the green arrow showing the entry. If the market opens tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday for Wednesdays trading day) > 114'20 the trade is exited otherwise hold the trade with the stop at 140'00. In this type of trading we don't concern ourselves with the fact that it did have a decent profit at one point today, the rules are the rules. You can't have an opinion one way or another when trading a system, you just take the trades blindly. I think I will rename this Blind Man's Bonds.

It appears to me we have some sell signals for tomorrow. The ES and the Currencies are basically the same trade, but they appear to be sells to me.




Here is the Swiss Franc. This appears to me to be a sell if Friday's low gets taken out. The trend broke there on Friday, and now has bounced. If we clear the highs of a couple days ago the setup is off. The Euro, Pound and ES are all basically the same as this. The ES ironically appears to be weaker. It would be a surprise to many if the stock market fell out of bed here so it makes me wonder if it might. The Bulls have had a stress free ride for 2 years here, maybe it is time to shake the tree a bit? We know the PPT is lurking which is the always present fly in the ointment for short selling the indexes. 

Even though we know they are out there we cannot consider that in deciding what to do. It is frustrating to watch an otherwise good trade get reversed into crap in the last hour by these guys, but there is going to come a time when markets return to their normal flow and you never know when that will start. I talk about it a lot but I never consider it in deciding when and where to short. I would say in general that I am looking more toward the end of this month to short the indexes ideally. It seems to me we are into some good support right here so shorts are going to be light for me until a bounce.

Most markets are just not quite right for me here, but I will short those currencies if we break down tomorrow.

Good Trading


3 comments:

Michael Tredr said...

i looked to sell the ES today. man, what a bad idea that was. i'll still be looking to sell them but these moves are a killer. it's very demoralizing - but i guess if i wanna complain like that, I should find another line of work.

Chris Johnston said...

I also had short term sells for today but I did not do them because they were right into weekly support areas if that is of any help

Michael Tredr said...

@Chris Johnston - thank you! hope today's session is a hugely profitable one for you