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Saturday, April 07, 2012

GAME CHANGER PART DEUX



With the stand up comedy out of the way now that is the NFP report it makes me wonder how in the world these guys are going to get this under 8% by the fall. They have pulled every trick in the book now to artificially make this lower than we all know it really is. We know this is the F You I Won administration, so maybe they will just say "well we just decided to not count any union worker who happens to get laid off because we are buying their votes anyway and they are on our side." It would be just like them to dare us to call them out on something. The last time I checked unprecedented meant without prior precedent. If so that means never having previously occurred. It is curious how the Supreme Court in one article I read has overturned legislation based on constitutional grounds 22 times in history. I guess the new math is 22 = 0. If they apply that to the NFP stuff and say that every 22 workers out of work equals zero, they can get the number where they want it. When our imperious leader basically threatened justice Kennedy, you would have thought this man heralded as the smartest man on earth would at least have some of the facts straight. Lets face it folks, he is just plain stupid. I do suspect as many do, that Justice Kagan called him or informed him in some way that it was 5 to 4 against, so he went and did what he knows to do, threaten and be a bully. His timing of the threat certainly suggests that he was told by someone what the vote was.

However, he is smart enough to keep pushing his bet and believe me when I tell you this. If he gets 4 more years you are going to see stock prices back down to where they were in March of 09 or lower. He will continue pushing socialism and racking up more and more debt until it crushes us, that is certain. The FED keeping rates artificially low to attempt to neutralize all of his mistakes is only going to work for so long. I mentioned 1280 on the ES recently as a level to watch, and it just broke during the electronic session Friday. This market is now all of the sudden a sell the bounce situation. I really don't know if Romney is a great candidate, but for god sakes anyone is better than this guy, even Hillary.

Now that we have a short term support break at a seasonal time when prices normally dip, I think it is time to look to the down side. It could be a rough ride though because the PPT is lurking and we have to expect them to buy the ES between 12 and 12:30 every day on down days like they have been doing recently. Whether or not a big day can get away from them now or not I have no idea, but it is setting up to look that way. The way to play it might be to just have stops above the last pivots on hourly charts in case they show up with a massive buy program here and there. You will give back some of what you have made but you will also be giving a trade a chance to really run for you, and that is where the big money is made.

I have skipped a few days of posting mostly because of a comment I deleted that never got through that really pissed me off about one of my dogs. I suppose I should not have such thin skin, but anyone who thinks they are going to screw with me on that subject better be damn serious about what they are doing. They are my family. Whoever you are if you are reading, you are not welcome here ever again. I guess I can't stop you from reading but maybe it is time to password protect this site to get rid of people like you.

Having taken a few days away, I got to thinking about one of the things I have been talking about doing. I have decided to resurrect my old Bond Trading System. I went through it recently and was surprised to see that many of the signals have held up very well over the last 4 years. I eliminated all the ones that have done poorly. What I am now going to do for one month, is put all the trades from it live here the night before so we can see how it does. Assuming it performs like it has been, I will then make it available for a fee at my old web site which I will re-open. It is not indicating any trades for Monday. I will put the specific order and prices for execution and we will see what happens with it. The fee will be fairly low. I will also be taking the trades just like I used to do. I think if you have a service you have to have skin in the game. If you have subscribers paying for something you should also have a personal stake in it beyond just taking the monthly fee. Most people don't do it this way but as readers know, I am not most people.

It looks to me now that most markets are sell rallies now. The next market is somewhat of an aggressive trade but it is one I am going to do. 




This is Unleaded Gas a hot topic market if there ever was one right now. It is the strongest of the energy complex, so that is a negative. However, it has that little reversal bar right at a trend line. If that low were to be taken out Monday, this is a sell for me. It is a fairly tight stop, so it is worth a shot. It is also a triple divergence in my proprietary oscillator which is not shown, so I like to take shots at those when they come along. Heating Oil has that same reversal bar and is weaker so perhaps that is a better trade.

I will be back to posting every day again and I hope that jack ass who left that one message has found more fertile grounds somewhere else. I apologize for the edgy tone that has been present recently, the illness of my one dog is taking it's toll on me. We have lost so many in the last two years that at times this just becomes a bit overwhelming. I suppose I am making an excuse but I am human and it is what it is.

Lets try and make some money on the short side on bounces this coming week. Going forward the orders for the Bond Trading System will be at the end of the posts. It does not trade every day and at times goes several days with no trades, so be prepared for that. It is mechanical, so whatever it spits out is what will be posted.




6 comments:

Anonymous said...

You probably right in your analysis of the stock market, but probability of finding good entry point for a short trade will be very low now, so in a typical fashion the market will screw most longs & won't provide opportunity to the shorts who were waiting for a signal. Good business this is.

John M said...

'the F You I Won administration'...that has to ber one of the funniest lines you ever wrote. Hey, I usually vote Dem, but don't blame me for this guy. I wanted someone with more brains, more experience, more dedication, and decades of commitment to personal causes--yeah, Hillary. And this guy and his thugs bullied and belittled her in cynical ways I still have a hard time believing, but do.

Gee, I wonder why they announced the jobs number when they knew the cash market would be closed?

By the way, I can't believe some jerk would post a comment saying anything derogatory or nasty about your dogs. That's pretty damn low. What an a**hole.

Squire said...

Brats troll all my favorite websites. They exist in real life but as they are at risk of a punch in the face for their gratuitous insults they are not very forthcoming. The internet lets these deficient people, people I have encounter all my life, a safe place to vent their frustration at their self perceived worthlessness. They win when they get to you. They are worthless, and therefore meaningless, and that is all one needs to know. They are a sick subset, an underworld in society.
That particular commenter is an Obama brat and a typical one at that.

It will be fun to track your bond signals live. I actually do that with stocks for a group of friends who don’t trade but enjoy the game through me. There is nothing like being public to make me triple check what I am doing.

Michael Tredr said...

I'm sorry to hear about losing your dogs and the recent illness of another. They really are God's creation; I will say a prayer for your dog to get well soon.

I believe now as well that the market is in the final process of its complexion change. If I had the extra capital laying around, I'd certainly get short, but I'd have to unwind two trades that I don't want to unwind at this point. Besides, i'm thinking - no, I'm HOPING - that things will just bounce around for a little bit before the party starts. and just for the sake of uber-useless and dumb predictions, i feel like the trapdoor opens up around late april to early may (i'm probably 200% wrong on this).

As for the person with the rude comment, it's unfortunate how some people throw civility out of the window when it comes to the net. It really is.

Chris Johnston said...

john you must have missed it I have used the F U I won phrase in here many times about him. He is so much like Jalen Rose and his pointing at the Scoreboard during his college days when fans were heckling him.

Thanks for the nice comments about the dogs, some people just don't get it

Anonymous said...

Just want to let you know how much I appreciate your blog. It is truly educational for me. Also, don't let one nasty comment get to you. Just like you have an occasional bad trade that you need to let go of, so too it is with comments. I'm sure most readers feel bad for your situation, and I hope that it improves. Thanks again for everything.