AUSSIE DOLLAR A TOUGH ONE TO CATCH
I want to go through a trade I blew this week just to keep things balanced in here. I mentioned I thought the Aussie Dollar was setup for a sell recently, so I was looking for a short entry. Be careful what you ask for.
My first entry which unfortunately was in the trading service, is indicated above, a short below the low of the reversal bar. At times these types of bars can be very good sells and as a result I got sloppy with this one. I should have waited for more consolidation and did not really use the correct amount of patience. I felt some pressure to get a trade going so I forced this one. Now that we can see a few days later how nicely this fell, it is easy to say well look at how that went down so fast.
However, it is always easy looking back, trading live is another story. On the next chart I show where the initial stop was and also a spot where it could have been. Had it been in the higher spot we would still be in the trade. However, the pattern I used for entry failed when the high of the entry bar was taken out, so that is where I exit trades. I exit where the pattern I used for entry has failed. We have to have rules and I stick by them come hell or high water and in this case it was hell, as it went up past the stop then slammed downward.
I did see another possible entry for Wednesday below Tuesday's low but thought the stop was too big for this market so I passed on the trade. Net net, I had a good setup, yet lost money on the trade I did to try and take advantage of it. I can't stand when people come out and always say I told you so and never show something like this. This is real and a dumb trade I made.
I still am not seeing a great deal of setups. I do think Bonds are coiled up tightly here where they should break out in one direction or the other. I think from a weekly stand point they are setup as a buy, but that does not mean the breakout goes that way. It is the way I am looking though due to the weekly setup.