STOCKS FINALLY CRASH - BLIND SOW FINDS AN ACORN, READ ALL ABOUT IT!
For those that have been talking about a sell off all year they were finally rewarded today. The question is whether or not they have any money left by now? Oh they will tell you they called it you can bet on that. I can see the email blasts and blog posts right now. We did get short in the Swing Service today where indicated, so we spoke with orders not BS arcane stories that mean nothing. We had no talk about the Sequester, politics, or any of that. Also, we did not apologize for metals declining we left that to others. Further, we don't really know whether or not this is going anywhere or not, this was one day with a wild reversal. One thing you should take note of, look at all the OUTSIDE bars on this chart. This is what I would call a market change that is happening.
More than a third of the days this year in the E Mini have been outside bars, this is very unusual. For those who keep stops close this has been deadly and I think this is going to continue. We have some very irregular activity around many of our orders as well. I think there are a lot of fancy programs designed around trading short term. When you get this you also get all kinds of stops bunched up. If you combine that with people giving away signals to funds or brokers, chat rooms, and all sorts of other things, and all of the sudden you get huge bunch areas where resting stops are sitting. This is why we are going to be moving our stops back some. We got picked off in our Euro short today with an order that I thought I had back far enough but it was not. Days like this are what they are. We did ok in some other things like our booming winning trade on the long side of Bonds, one of the best we have had. I did something unusual with this one, which I will explain.
You can see where the original entry was on the opening of Sunday's night session. I had noticed coming into this trade that there was a huge amount of upward momentum that had not yet been reflected in the price, that was in one of my proprietary indicators in blue. As a result if this mechanical trade went against me my plan was to add on to it, I don't often do this and it is a complete judgement call. During the night I had someone cancel the Bond service, most likely during the middle of the dip when the trade was going against us. To me the market was speaking. If the weak hands were selling I wanted to be buying. If someone who had likely taken the trade and panicked because it was down enough to cancel, that was a buy signal in the subjective world of trading.
Of course this could have been a credit card problem with the subscriber or a coincidence you never know, but to me it was the final kicker to get aggressive on this trade. This could have really gone against me and if it had I would have taken a larger percentage loss than normal, but it was a judgement call I made that was pretty obvious. When momentum is going up that strong it is usually a good idea to buy into weakness. The mechanical entry had nothing to do with that logic at all. Just doing that one stand alone worked out very very well making about $1750 by itself.
I don't mean to pick on this person but there is a point to be made here. I have seen people come and go at the worst possible times in and out and back in and even back out again in the Bond System. This is a system that has consistently made money since it's introduction. If there has been a better one available for public consumption I would like to have someone tell me what it is. Yet people go in and out etc.. This is why most people don't make money trading. Folks this is not an easy business, it is difficult. You have to do what others do not or cannot or are not comfortable doing. Panicking in trading is going to give you immediate relief when you get out, then long term pain when you realize you have done the wrong thing. This negative feedback loop is a tough one to break.
I have made these exact mistakes in my life more than once and it is why I constantly harp on this. "Don't be that guy." This is stressful and it is even more stressful if you stay glued to a screen all day long. Today I had my live quotes turned off after I added on to the Bonds last night. I watched the ES at the open for a minute because of a new method I have been messing around with that bought the open today and was stopped out at Friday's low had I done the trade which I did not. I am watching the trades live out of sample to see how they work. It is a trend based method so it is going to lose when trends change like this appears to be doing. This year so far it has had 11 trades with 9 wins and two losses with today being the second one. I am continuing to monitor it, today was lousy but just one trade so not a big deal.
I will review a few other trades in the next few days including the Euro where we appeared to have a gangbusters trade going and got picked off today for about a $900 win instead of much much more we could have had. That is trading.
THE AUTO TRADE PROGRAM WITH ROBBINS FOR BONDS IS FINALLY TESTED AND READY TO ROLL.
I spent a couple of hours on the phone testing this today with some tech guys and it is working well so we are ready to go now on the next trade. As a wise gentleman by the name of Murphy who has a law named after him would predict, following a monster winning trade like this, the next one will probably be lousy! We will plow forward regardless. If you are interested it is ready, call Ryan at Robbins Trading.