NATURAL GAS VERY UNNATURAL

Once again we have unusual price action in one of our trades and folks this is getting very very tiring. We seem to be having this once a week now and it is costing us. Here is what I propose to do next.

I am offering a $500 cash payment and 6 free months of either one of our trading services to anyone who can give me information on who is doing this to us. If you have someone else you know who is a subscriber to our services that you suspect please contact me. I will guarantee anonymity to you and will pay you once the person is caught. I will pursue legal action against them once they are caught, but will pay the reward once they are identified. Don't be a wise guy and turn yourself in for $500 etc.. this offer only applies to those who are not the unsub ( unknown subject for those who don't get that ).

For now we are going to have to eliminate trades in markets like this and I will trade them on my own. I cannot afford to have my trades screwed up like this by some greedy bastard who is selling us all out for whatever they might be getting from it. I won't bother asking nicely anymore for this person to stop this, it is time for more than that. I may have to send out a one page document requiring everyone's signature to continue using our services. This is a serious matter and I am not taking it lightly. This should not be a problem for anyone except the person who is acting inappropriately. It is already in the disclaimer that you are not allowed to do this, but the language is going to be stepped up and a fine added.

 I cannot for the life of me understand human nature sometimes. Why in the world would anyone do this, our services are so cheap? I try to conduct myself in a straight forward and professional manner and would never dream of doing something like this to someone else.

There are still plenty of markets for us to trade where this jerk off can't effect us so that is where we will play. We have net lost money in these small markets anyway due to this ongoing problem, so we are better off without them.

The world's favorite market is in play once again, GOLD. The apologists are everywhere right now, manipulation they cry! I won't bother even dignifying that garbage. In all fairness when you don't trade and try to be an analyst you can get caught up in stuff like this.

Here we are approaching the triple bottom that is very well defined. Basic technical analysis teaches us that the fourth test typically breaks through. From a long term perspective life is still good for Gold Bugs until a breach of this level occurs. If a breach of that level occurs trying to establish a support level would be meaningless, the trend would be decidedly down on all time frames. With support and resistance you want to use them in conjunction with the trend, if this level breaks it will be the resistance levels for shorting that will be what need to be determined.

My thoughts on this market are well documented so my long term bias is well known. However, I trade off technical tools. I have made a good amount of money on the long side of the Gold market during this spectacular historic rally off the lows over the last 10 years. I am not sure if this level will hold or not. If I had to guess I would say no based on how sharply we are approaching it. Also with the apologists starting to come out and claim the market is being manipulated down, it is starting to feel like Real Estate and Stocks when they started to come down and the bulls tried to talk them back up.

At some point in life I think you need to make things as simple as you can. The water cooler economists that are virtually everywhere, are so tied up in their underwear over all this convoluted logic with no historical basis, that they have lost sight of something very important. When the price of a commodity gets over extended by multiple standard deviations in either direction, history has shown that 100% of the time a significant reversion takes place, 100% of the time!

100% OF THE TIME

Gold at it's peak was 4 standard deviations to the upside, the same as Real Estate was at it's peak. Of course it is always possible that it could be different this time. Things in life do change and at times things do happen for the very first time. However, when betting it is a much higher probability to bet on what has typically happened, not what never has. It will be entertaining if history proves itself out again, watching how crowded the exits get. As Dr. Evil would say "it could be quite breath taking." For those with big ones and who are perma bulls, you could make the argument the commercials are starting to buy here to support this low and go long. I am obviously not in that camp.

Good Trading