FLY IN THE OINTMENT?

With the markets sailing along wonderfully, how could anything be wrong? For the most part we have the perfect storm going, lower rates and insiders bullish, right at the seasonal rally point. There are a couple of things that are a bit troubling. First, the A/D line has not made new highs yet while the DOW has. This divergence is pretty small, so not a huge worry yet, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Second, notice the large negative divergence in the Pro Go indicator at the bottom. I have explained what this is in the past, so scan the archives if you do not know. This quite frankly, is very troubling. I am looking very closely for a spot to buy back in, but this makes me think we may have a bit of a rough patch of a month or two. Rarely does the market continue upward, when this diverges by this amount.

One thing to keep in mind about divergences in indicators, they often occur against the trend and are not anything but profit taking indications. This is not ever a green light on it's own to short a market. However, this is occuring right at a point where we have a broadening formation at all times highs, so this is not a point to initiate new longs.

My guess is that we will go sideways to lower for a month or two, then launch a pretty good upward move again. I will be looking during this period for the stocks I want to buy, and when to enter. It is frustrating to have been out the last couple of weeks, I have missed a nice move, and my timing model still indicates a long position is appropriate. This tells me that just a blip for a short period, then off to the races again.