Following up on yesterdays commentary, the rally has continued. One of the things I have learned the hard way over the years is not to fight trends. The short term trend is decidedly up so even though there are reasons to look for a short sale, until we get some type of breakdown I am staying out of the way of this.Some of the shorter term timing things I use have already failed to pick this top and we are working on 7 consecutive up days in the SP 500 pit contract. Contrary to popular belief that does not indicate a good short sale entry. We are having extended bounces in most markets right here, energy, grains, currencies, softs, metals. I think most of these are shorting opportunities the challenge is timing them properly.
8 comments:
Hi Chris,
Welcome back. Always enjoyed your comments and perspective on the markets. I know you used to have a paid subscription service for trading futures, but I couldn't find the website anymore. Do you still offer it?
One question I always I had reading your comments: who are the commercials? Institutional investors?
I canned the pay for service, it was attracting too many get rich quick artists. Even though the service made close to $40,000 per contract in 07 and way more last year, people were cancelling. As a result I felt that if those kind of results were not good enough then I was attracting a group that I did not want to deal with. I am managing a fund now so I also felt it might be a conflict of interest even though it is not legally.
The commercials are the large institutions that by law have to report their positions to the brokerage firms. Generally, the commercials are the smart money as compared to large and small speculators. Although they are hedgers by nature, following what they do keeps us on the right side of the trends generally, although there is an art to monitoring what they are doing. At times they fight trends due to their hedging nature, but when they are selling and the market is going down that typically means lower prices are ahead.
Sorry to hear that you had to close the service. I was thinking about joining. :) Anyway, I value your opinion.
I may ressurect it again at some point so stay in touch if you are truly interested. I do have a few old clients that I still email signals to, but it is not done through my web site anymore. I hand picked a few that I knew understood that trading is not a get rich quick scheme. I had one client that cancelled after I had 22 consecutive wins, then had one loss and his comments really irked me. I made huge money during that streak and somehow he managed to lose during a run of 22 out of 23 wins. My guess was he second guessed most of them and did not do them, then finally after he saw the huge run, decided to place a large bet on the one trade that wound up being a loss, then blamed me. After that loss it the system ran off 8 straight again and of course he was not there to participate. It just made me realize that for some reason I was attracting the wrong crowd for my service.
Thanks for the kind remarks
What? Your service is not about getting rich quick? I'm canceling. Wait, I haven't signed up yet. :)
You don't have to worry about me belonging to the wrong crowd. I always take responsibility for my own trading results. The only thing that held me back joining was that I had never traded bond and futures and I remember your service was mainly about trading bond futures. I have traded stocks and options extensively though.
I expanded the service to cover all markets before I decided to pull the plug. This was mostly due to a few requests from clients for this as well as changes in bonds that made my system trade alot less there. We made alot in the S&P during one stretch, and some good chunks in the metals, Gold, Copper and Silver. I should have never mentioned the service in the piggington blog if that is where you became familiar with it. I was urged on by a few people who participate there who I know personally, and it was a mistake. I did get a few clients out of it but the goal is to have cleints for life or not at all in my view. Trading is a difficult business and most people just do not seem to understant that. It sounds like you do which is good. It can be very lucrative but is not for the faint of heart.
This is the second time today I'm being told that trading is a dangerous game, both from highly experienced traders.
What's the best way to reach you? I'd like to find out more about your service.
It is not that it is dangerous, it is just that it is not the instant way to millions like many of the hypsters make it sound. It is no more risky than trading stocks.
All trading endeavors require alot of time and research to develop an approach that works for you. Many people who flocked to commodities this past year found that out as many lost all of their money. Timing is everything. I have spent 20 years studying and trading and at times still feel like I know nothing.
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