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Thursday, March 19, 2009

They don't make day's like yesterday more than once every several hundred years. This is an intraday chart of 30 Yr Bonds. The large spike represents from high to low about 8 full points, 4 times what was for years the daily trading limit. This occurred in about 15 minutes thanks to the PPT. For those who do not believe in the PPT you should have your head examined after a move like this.

This is going to support this rally for a bit, but bigger picture most of us know this is a very bad development. Bonds have historically been very supportive of stock prices so this move to drive down long term rates should provide support for a time. However, once this steam runs out look out below, a sharp drop is going to occur. Time cycles suggest May but there is no way of knowing for sure. I suggest for those who have not gone to cash to consider doing so in May specifically if prices are higher than today. In my view we are going to take out the years lows again, so we have a nice opportunity to correct a mistake for those who did not go to cash from way above in the 13000 range like some of us did.

There will be a fantastic buying opportunity to buy stocks when this is all over, but it is not here yet.

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