Here is a daily chart of Natural Gas, a market that has just been absolutely clobberred this year. I had a fun argument with my gas provider on my ranch who was trying to raise my rates. I faxed him a futures chart of the spot price showing a 30% decline during the time period he was trying to raise the price? Needless to say he was unaware I was a commodities trader until that moment. He still refused to acknowledge that I was right, yet did drop the price. That is probably a good synopsis of why we are in the trouble we are today economically. Here was a liar caught red handed, and refused to admit it. I am sure he got over on several other clients who had no idea he was stealing from them. However, like mortgage folks, I am sure he felt very good about getting away with it when he did.
As you can see from this chart, we have a very well defined downtrend line, drawn in red. We also have a potential higher short term low here if price tomorrow were to trade above today's high, the horizontal green line with a B for buy next to it. Also, you can see in spite of the weakness recently, the price is still above the trend of the momentum osicillator at the bottom, where the two vertical arrows are on the chart. This type of divergence from price during a period like we have here where commercials have also been heavy buyers of this commodity indicates to me this a market to pay attention to.
This is a trade I will do tomorrow if it rallies to the point indicated.