Here is a market I have called exactly correctly
Crude Oil has done exactly what I said to look for to enter a short sale and I have also stated it should be shorted due to the huge potential for a big move. We got that move today in a big way. We did retrace some at days end to mitigate the damage which also wreaked some havoc with the Natural Gas trade I mentioned in here the other day as well. I was stopped out for a scratch in that trade after having a huge gain, but the outrageous intraday volatility we saw today picked off my trailing stop which I thought I had well far enough back.
This is the tip of the iceberg folks. We all know this rally in many of these markets has been manipulated and is on fumes. We also know that the smart money is heavily short in most markets. The other thing I think we "know" is that the derivative meltdown is probably not over or the Fed would not be keeping rates so low. As a result, when the Dubai story broke it wreaked havoc on the markets. It reminded us all that the risks for a decline are very real. I have no idea how long "they" can keep this afloat, but when it does correct even a normal amount, many of these commodity markets that have been brought along for the ride are going to decline very quickly and sharply.
I really think you need to be careful playing the long side now even though trends are still up technically in many places. With all the fundamental things I have layed out in here being in place, the next large move should be to the downside. Today made it ever so clear what that might look like if it gets going. Had stocks continued down today we likely would have seen a $100 decline in Gold and $1.50 in Silver. It was only the equity rally that prevented that. Usually when you start getting volatility this sharp a change in trend is coming.