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Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Time to bow to the Gold Bugs, you were right and I was wrong. Now that we have made a new high here, my mid Oct high call has to be labeled incorrect. I have shown two good short trades I made in Silver during this period, so at the end of the day I have profited handsomely from the call even though it was wrong.

I do still maintain my bigger picture call for this being a bubble, but my timing was incorrect, and that is really what matters. I still urge caution here due to what we know is driving this, the individual investors. However, it is off and running now, so shorts are not appropriate at the moment. It is very interesting that we have the dollar and gold strength together today, not often does this happen.

I bow to the Gold Bugs, they were right. However, from a trading perspective, moves made on small speculator buying do not last typically, so at the very least have your stops under the low of 10/27, the rug is going to be pulled on this at some point and when it is the drop is going to be shocking with the speed it occurs. If we get to the point where we have a decline and the small spec position gets worked off peacefully and the commercials buy it, I will change to a bull here. I am not a perpetual Gold bear, I am just following what I have learned generally drives market moves and it has not worked here.

For those know it alls out there who never admit to being wrong, try it you might find you like it.

2 comments:

robert said...

Gold is not being driven by pure supply and demand fundamentals.

It is being driven by fear - fear of economic collapse and social unrest.

Robert Campbell

Chris Johnston said...

clearly what I think is irrelevant in this market, and what normally drives market moves has not been telling here or in many other markets recently. Strangest moves I have ever seen in my career. This is like me straight setting Roger Federer in 30 straight matches. Very rarely can small individual investors with far less money overpower the megapowers financially, yet somehow it is happening here.

But it is what it is and my analysis has just been wrong here.