Well I would like to Speculate!!!!!!

This has to be what all the small investors that trade in Crude Oil must have decided recently. Look at the huge spike up the the small speculators positions in Crude Oil. I have posted recently that the commercials had their largest short position on record, now we see this to go with it. It just does not get much better than this for a fundamental setup for a decline.

Now, we do not just run out and short just because of this. This is a setup, not an entry. There are a number of ways to get into a trade that will put you in sync with what the big picture fundamentals like this are telling us "should" happen. I would suggest waiting for some type of trend change then either entering on the break of a support, not my first choice. The alternative is to wait for that to happen and short the first bounce.

Here is a snapshot of the last time the small spec long position got this high. In the first instance you can see we went down immediately. In the second instance we carried on for a few weeks before a big decline happened. This is why you cannot enter at the market in these situations. Gold has certainly been a recent example of this.

It is merely an alert to start looking for daily entries. The following is a view of the daily chart, and you can see it is somewhat of a mess, no obvious entry point here. I have drawn on it one ideal future "play out" of this that would give us a good entry. When we are trading in a well defined channel like this you need to honor the boundries until it breaks. However, if some type of lower high structure were to setup in the middle of it like I have drawn in red, it would be an entry worth taking given the potential for a large move here.