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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

EXIT STAGE LEFT



I decided to take profits on this short term GOLD short today here as shown at 1079. I had this and 1056 as possible targets for this trade. Just to re-state, this in no way indicates a shift in my view here. Trading is another matter. Regardless of opinions I have to enter and exit with short term rules. It is better if those entries coincide with bigger picture views, but that is not always the case. I had a $2000 risk here so anytime you can double that in profit, it is a decent trade in my book. Readers here have now seen me take substantial money out of the metals on the short side in the last few months, the other 3 trades in Silver. We are nowhere near done on the downside here so I will wait for another entry pattern to setup. We could free fall here there is no doubt about it, but I have taken a good piece and am content to sit on the sidelines and wait for another setup to develop.

With the Dollar short squeeze trade on and in full effect, it is impossible to guess where the turns in price will happen exactly, and we do not need to.  We can just rely on our patterns to trigger the entries. We do have some divergence in the following chart, which has made me leery of this price level. We are also into buy retracement zones on the weekly chart, which is displayed on the third chart. I am looking for a short term long to play a bounce here. I have no idea if that will happen. This is why they turn on the machines every day, so all of us know it all's can be proven right or wrong.




This chart has a possible long entry for Wednesday being triggerred by one of my proprietary divergence patterns. I rarely take action on these alone, and will not this time. However, you can also see a divergence in the first momentum oscillator, which will also occur and be confirmed if that projected bar for Wednesday occurs. That is not an actual bar, but one drawn in to see how the indicators would look if we were to close above today's high. I personally do not like how much the second momentum oscillator is lagging so much, it does not confirm this trade to me so it is a no go in this corner. However, there is also another short term Fibonacci timing indicator telling us a very short term low could be here, and to buy if today's high goes. We are also weekly in a good buy zone.




This just shows some basic moving averages that as you can see have supported price consistently on the way up and may do so again here. We can never know when dropping into them if they will hold or not, they do until the trend changes, then obviously that last move does not hold. I believe the top is in here but they still could bounce it up from here for one last try at saving this pig.

2 comments:

robert said...

re: gold

Chris, if you look at the weekly gold charts and use Williams %R and a 39 week MA as indicators, you'll see that when the price of gold is above the 39 week MA and when %R falls to -95 or below, this is a good time to go long gold.

In my view, and based on the 39 week MA, the longer-term trend for gold is still bullish.

BTW, great analysis on your blog. I read you everyday and I'm glad your are posting more often.

Have a Merry Christmas.

Robert Campbell

Chris Johnston said...

Robert I do agree with your assessment. The long term trend is still firmly up. As much as I am fundamentally bearish, price action is what ultimately determines how I trade. I will go long if one of my setups develops here. We are in a good buy zone on the weekly charts without question.

If we break down from these levels, that will change things. I think you always have to buy the pullbacks and just be prepared to lose on the one that represents the trend change. Most of them will work, so you have alot of house money once the losing one comes along so it is not a big deal.

If my analysis is correct, we will bounce from here, then come back down through these levels after a failed high test, and that will be the trend change. However, this bounce could be very big so it is definitely worth trying to play it.

Either way whether you have a big picture view of bullish or bearish, it is a buy here.