I have thrown out alot of things here recently. In the past it is my format in here to review what I have put out to critique myself and determine if I know what I am talking about or not. I do not see many others in this business ever do this, and it makes me wonder why? Of course we know the answer to that question don't we?
Here are the last 7 market calls I have made in here, and what has been the result afterwards. I will Grade each one, then give a composite Grade for the body of work as a whole at the end.
1. Natural Gas Rally
2. Crude Oil Decline
3. British Pound Decline
4. Dollar Rally
5. Silver/Gold Decline
6. Bean Oil Decline
7. Stocks - Short Term strength, Long Term Trouble
Trade looked like gangbusters for a couple days, but in the end the rally reversed at resistance and made new lows. Since the trade was a profit albeit small, and did go up quickly the day I stated it would I will give myself a C here. I had alot of money in profit here, and most of it went away by exit time, but I was trying for a larger target here due to commercial buying and it did not materialize.
It certainly would be hard to have been more accurate than this. I called and drew in a little zig zag up as a selling opportunity, and that is exactly what happened and the market declined from there. A on this one no doubt.
Called for a decline and short entry at the arrow, again could not have been any better than this. A.
I called for a rally in the Dollar Index if the high at the arrow went on that day, it did. We did dip some after but look where we are now. Who else was calling for a DX rally at this time, nobody that I know of? Grade here A.
In both Silver and Gold I called for declines and indicated a short entry as labeled. I said Silver was the market to short because it had a weaker chart pattern than GOLD. Trades don't get any better than this one has been so far. A. I also mentioned that I was not sure if this was "the top" but that I thought it was. Also that I would manage this as a short term trade and see if it breaks for potentially holding it longer. That may be happening today, but too early to tell yet.
I discussed a short entry here where the arrow is, and this has gone nowhere. In my personal trading I shorted Wheat due to it being weaker and a better pattern, which has been a good trade so far but I did not post that in here, so I get no props for that. I guess I get a C here, not right or wrong really, just flat.
Short term so far I have been pretty good here. I have called for the trend to continue as long as the prior pivots held on these pullbacks, which they did. The trade for today is yet to be determined. I have also mentioned we are in areas where caution should be used on the long side. I would say since we are going sideways that has been a pretty good call. As far as the longer term comments, we won't know for months whether or not they are accurate. Overall I would say a B here.
1. Natural Gas Rally - C
2. Crude Oil Decline - A
3. British Pound Decline - A
4. Dollar Rally - A
5. Silver/Gold Decline - A
6. Bean Oil Decline - C
7. Stocks - Short Term strength, Long Term Trouble - B
Overall Grade - A-. Not one single trade I have proposed that has been reviewed here would have lost money for anyone who did them. I did all of them and made money in every single one of them.
In summary, I have had a pretty good run of market calls and trades in here. I have made every single one of the trades I have mentioned in here and generally do. The only exception would be if something happened significant in between when I post here and when the markets open that might invalidate a setup. This will happen occasionally but not often. My main attempt here is to just have an open forum discussion about things. I selfishly helps me to lay out thoughts and trades out in the open for public consumption, because it makes me insure that what I am doing is in sync with my approach. When I put it out for public scrutiny I better damn well be sure I am prepared to defend it and live up to it.
I make no guarantees of anything. This recent run has been about as accurate as anyone is going to be for a period of a few weeks. Trading is a very difficult business, there are so many humbling moments, they far outweigh the hot streaks. Even when I have made alot during a run like this, one bad trade can make me feel like the biggest fool in town. All I pledge to do here is call them like I see em, and be my own harshest critic.