I realize there are many readers who are not american here and do not celebrate this holiday, so no offense intended, but tomorrow is a big day here in the states.
As we watch the Barry Group run out scrubs now talking about how the stock market indicates how well they have done, it would be hard to dispute that based on the stock market performance recently. The Naz chart above shows a clear breakout to new highs, and there is no mistake about it we are and have been in one heck of a bull market now for several months. I have been skeptical during some of this. If you read back far enough you will see at the end of Feb I was bullish on the stock market, but I did not think we would go anywhere near this far. I have been in cash except for short term trading since the beginning of June, in my stock accounts. I am not a long term holder anyway, but no matter how I measure it this has gone far beyond what I thought we would see.
Ironically I did make money this past week on the short side of this market, nothing to be proud of, I missed the big move which was up. Keep in mind though that I trade my patterns when they are there and do not when they are not. I did not have a long side entry or I would have taken it. I chose to keep a very tight leash on my short, and that was a good judgement because I took several thousand dollars out of what was quite frankly a terrible trade. I see no reason yet at all to be shorting this market other than very short term trading like I did. Now we are nowhere near a sell pattern for me, so I will either buy a pullback here, or play somewhere else. I do find it more than a coincidence, that some of Barry's scrubs are out touting the stock market run now. Do you ever remember a president doing that?
As much as I hate to admit it, I see no evidence of any PPT activity in the markets now at all. The volume is so light that just the institutions alone can keep this humming right along. As they highjack our economy, I do think a day of awful reckoning is still coming, but do not think it will be before mid January at the earliest. It may not happen at all, we never know that. Looking at that trendline on the above chart, until that goes we are good to go upward. Notice how we retraced right to it where I have it extended with the blue line, then took off again upward. This is how bull markets act.
I mentioned yesterday that if Hogs broke back down again I would re-enter that short trade, and that did happen today, so I did go back in. This had very unusual intraday action today, so I have to look at this over the weekend to decide how I want to play it going forward. The chart is below.
As I indicate with the arrow on this chart, I am not thrilled with how the one accumulation/distribution indicator did not confirm this large down day today. They can lag by a day but I do not want another day if we were to go down again below the TRAP low, to show a higher reading on this.
Happy Holidays to everyone!