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Monday, December 21, 2009

MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH............. .20 IN THIS CASE



You can see the GOLD trade that I posted the other day is still on but it is purely luck. My stop loss order was .20 above where today's high wound up being. To say that is lucky is an understatement. Maxwell Smart would have been proud of me here. Who knows what happens next, we are kind of moving sideways overall here now and particularly in Silver. I am leaving my stop in the same place and we will see what happens. I am still not convinced that we are going lower now before bouncing, but am trailing this just in case we do. I have stated many times where I think we are ultimately going in this market, and I am hoping that I happen to be aboard when the exits get crowded. Who knows maybe all the experts are right and we are going straight to $3000 here, and I am just a buffoon.

The next chart which relates directly to this for obvious reasons, is the US Dollar Index. For those who want to know what a Short Squeeze looks like, this is it. There are 14 consecutive days of higher lows here. As I stated in here just a few days before this began, this was the short squeeze of a generation waiting to happen, and now it is happening. There are literally millions of people on the wrong side of this trade if this continues. I do not know if it will without a correction or not. Big picture I think we are going way up here, but I do hope we dip back towards the low for a test. This would convince the experts this was a bogus rally, and trap more people making the subsequent move up more powerful. We could just keep spiking here since we broke out of a Larry Williams blast off bar today. This usually means a continuation of the current move itleast for a few days and sometimes much more.




I would love to take a quick short on this rally if my patterns were to setup, but we are a long ways from that happening. We are in weekly resistance zones, but so far we have seen no signs of this stopping. The one thing about our markets that has definitely changed is that often stair stepping moves make V tops and bottoms now. In the good ole days markets usually came out of moves how they came into them. That rule of thumb is worth diddily nowadays. This market is a perfect example, we just stair step down for months at a time, then spike right out of the lows. This used to be rare, but seems to be happening all the time now.

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