Above is a tool Genesis has that projects future price action based on matching price patterns at hand to prior occurences. This is far from a perfect forecast, and at times they are dead wrong. However, I have found that about 66% of the time these are accurate predictors of where prices will go. This shows that in the next 5 weeks the forecast is generally higher for stock prices. My short term indicators have also given buy signals this past week, so both are in line with one another. Something in my craw is telling me to question this, but I do not have anything objective yet that says otherwise. For the near term meaning next week I am expecting prices to move flat to upward.
If you look closer at the forecast above, it really shows a couple of weeks of flat to slightly down, then 3 bars up. Looking at the above chart we see that a cycle low is due in 2 weeks. We also see the Will Go Long term projecting an upmove starting in 3 weeks or so. If we put all this together, it says a tradeable low should either be here or show up in the next couple of weeks. The one contra signal is the Will Go short term above in black. However, as you can see the sell signals there have not been very good the last year or so with most of them being wrong. As a result, just ignore that.
In summary, I am looking for long side trades at the moment here. Once a bouce occurs that will shift, because the trend has changed to down in my view, and I want to sell rallies more aggressively than buy dips in down trends. Next up, BONDS.
Look at the heavy commercial selling going on here. It is the sharpest in quite some time, and it has now taken us down to the level of commercial shorts where a decent peak occured before. This is the typical flight to quality spot, so if stocks are going to stabilize, it would logically follow that this market would decline. I am looking for sell signals on daily charts due to this above situation. The ideal seasonal low here is Julyish, so maybe we will have a decline for a few weeks setting up a buy for a bigger up move. Since we are in an uptrend here pullbacks are buys.
The next market to show is a daily chart of Silver, where I am looking to get long this coming week.
Look at the recent bullish divergences at the low, now we have a higher short term low that has formed here, so a break out upward here should be bought in my opinion. I will put my money behind my mouth next week on this and we will see what happens.
Last but never least in water cooler conversations in corporate offices, the US DOLLAR.
Again, it would logically follow that we would have sells here, if I am looking to buy Silver. There are divergences galore here in everything I look at, so I am looking for a sell entry here. I probably need another up close, but will just have to wait and see what happens. It certainly would be correct to already be short here, so I may miss this if it just rolls over, hope not. The divergence in the trend oscillator is actually a triple divergence, so this move could be a big one.
That's it for today.