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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
ONLY ONE WAY THIS CAN END
As I was watching the news channels last night after having been roped in once again by my wife who always has them on in the great room that I have to walk through to move around the house, this is what I saw. Our fearless leader arguing with other leaders against spending restraint. It is absolutely shocking to me that we are now the most liberal country in the world philisophically. Germany of all the possible countries, is scolding us for irresponsible spending! Obviously, the "recovery" is a fraud and has been from the get go. I just cannot imagine the answer to financial problems being to spend more. I call this guy an embecile, and I think he is. However, what if he is not actually stupid? If he is intelligent and is ruining our country by design, it is certainly a more dire scenario. Maybe it is just an incompetent staff which he clearly has? Biden might be fun to have a beer with, but hard to believe he is first in line to become president. He is more suited to Caddyshack IV as a crazy uncle. I keep leaning toward a Tr- Lateral Commission type of theory here, that someone or a group is pulling his strings. The most shocking thing to me is how few people see the emperor has no clothes.
I admit that I am a conservative, but I hope to GOD that if there was ever a Conservative president that was this incompetent, I would be equally outraged. I hope we will never know. If we ever have another leader like this, we will not survive financially, if we survive him. It did hit me last night after listening to him that there is only one way to go in the financial markets and that is down. I do not trade based on opinions as readers know. Sometimes I wish I did, most of the time I am glad I don't. I did mention the other day that the markets just felt heavy and I think that is just a reflection of all that is going on. There is virtually no good news out there and the PPT cannot keep this thing aloft forever. They have done a magnificent job engineering this rally which has helped the public psyche. Can you imagine how everyone would be feeling if the Dow was a 6,000 instead of 10,000?
My trades coming into this week have not worked out well. I tightened the stops in the EURO and SUGAR based on my comments over the weekend, and both were hit. The sum of those trades was basically a wash, one win, one loss. The COPPER trade with the big open equity was exited today after giving back about 70% of the money. Still a profit, but very disappointing. No way COPPER can hold up in the face of a selloff like this in the DOW.
I shorted Crude Oil and the Canadian Dollar last night. I was looking for a way to get short something that could benefit by a downdraft since I did not have sell signals in the indexes. They were both setup correctly and on my watch list this week already.
I debated which of the energies to short and selected this due to the relative weakness in the POIV indicator in purple. I felt that fundamentally based on the COT data that Unleaded Gas was the weakest but the daily setup seemed a bit better here. It is basically the same trade either way. Notice how much lower the peak was there with price being almost at an equal high. I am not watching markets intraday anymore much other than an occasional peek in case orders get filled and I need to place exit stops. I would imagine since I heard the DOW was down a good clip that this market is probably declining also. The day is not over, so you never know what will happen. I guess all we know for sure is that the government will approve more spending today, everthing else is unknown.
Next is the Canadian Dollar, pretty much the same picture, a little bit more of an existing downtrend coming into today than was Crude, which is an uptrend and is more of a reversal trade.
Are these trades any good? Who knows. I am trying to make a transition towards less babysitting of things, holding trades longer.This has been ugly so far as I knew it would be. Changing trading styles is never seamless, and it certainly has not been this month.
I think the conclusion is obvious, it is George W. Bush's fault that I had a lousy month.