BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

I have not been able to get the new editor to load and of course Blogger has nobody you can call, so I guess it is back to the old one which does not work nearly as well. I guess for free this is still an awfully nice tool to have. My apologies for the erratic spacing, this editor is very difficult to work with. Above is the SP 500 chart which has completely broken down. There is nothing good to say about this at all except that we are so oversold that a bounce could happen at any time. My guess at this point now when I take into account this breakdown and all the other things that are going on, is that the lows of 2008 are probably going to get taken out by the time this whole mess is over. I have no idea how long it will take, but the bigger picture trend has now switched to down.

With an absolute idiot at the helm, this ship I am afraid is going to sink. The deleveraging that began that was kicked down the road by the PPT I think is going to reassert itself now in a massive deflationary wave. This is not a change in posture by me, readers know that I have maintained for quite some time, that we are in deflationary period. It is one of the main big picture reasons as to why I say GOLD is in a bubble inflated by small speculators. In a deflationary environment hard assets should not be appreciating other than be driven by speculation.

The cycles do call for an October buy spot but I fear now that it likely only to be a rally in a downtrend and not a major buying point. The doctoring of todays non farm payrolls report was once again an insult to anyone who is paying attention at all. The ADP report kind of makes what was reported Friday impossible. However, Barry as per usual just says F you I won and I can do whatever I want including lie to you about virtually everything including the unemployement data. I would suggest extreme caution now if you are a long term bull for stocks, I think you will have a much better spot than where we are now, much better, so do not get roped into buying this dip as a long term play yet.

You have to watch the reaction to the news more than the news itself, and today told it all. They doctored that report to make it much better than what it really should have been, and the market after a small bounce just continued lower. The exits are about to get pretty crowded. I am amazed that the PPT was able to maneuver prices up this high, it was a PICASSO. The biggest problem that I see out there going forward is the lack of bullets the PPT now has to fire if we get a big rollover here. Can they keep buying futures and lose hundreds of millions again like they did during 07-08? I doubt it. The public is turning up the heat on all the spending and where the tax dollars are going. I just don't think the stonewall approach Barry and his henchmen take is going to work forever. At some point after nicely protesting, the protests are going to turn nasty like what is happening in other parts of the world.

If you examine history and the original Tea Party, that did not happen until all the peaceful objections to the King were ignored. This recent justice department fiasco where we now know that black people can do things to whites and not vice versa is the icing on this cake. Which ever side of the political fence you sit on this is a very dangerous precedent. People will not allow themselves to be treated unfairly forever. You can bet on this, come election day if they try to rig the elections by blocking good honest citizens from voting, violence will break out. I personally would be the first in line to throw down with these guys if they tried to block me, would not flinch.

I fear more than ever than things are about to become really dicey in this country, but boy do I hope I am wrong. I just feels to me like we have reached the tipping point. The markets are going with this if I am right. One of the most troubling developments in my mind is the strength of the Pound and Euro now versus the dollar. These were two places that supposedly had more debt problems than we do here in the states. The markets are telling us that there is becoming a loss of confidence in the United States. It is no coincidence these uptrends accelerated after that retard argued with other foreign leaders against austerity measures. It was almost as if the powers that be in the rest of the world realized at that moment that he is an idiot and it is time to bet against us. You can look back in my prior posts to see where I said I thought a rally in the EURO was coming. The commercials had historic long positions and the small speculators short ones. Now we seem to have some political forces behind the move as were as the numeric basis. This bodes poorly for our markets here in my view.

GOLD

We had that huge down day in GOLD just the second day after I said I thought this could fall sharply at any moment. On the surface this looks ominous, but there is one interesting development with the POIV indicator. Notice how the purple line has a large amount of bullish divergence. This is very unusual for this to diverge this much, and is potentially a saving grace for the bulls. This has to be watched closely now because this is rarely wrong when you see it this prominent. It can be worked off quickly on a big down day so this is not a run out and buy the dip moment. The Pattern Maps are forecasting lower based on the last 10 days or so of bar action. If we happen to bounce up for a few days another shorting opportunity could present itself if the POIV "catches up" to price on the downside. If it does not we might move sideways to up.

This is all for today, working with this editor makes doing this take forever and I am out of time.

FORE!