FUTURES TRADING ENTERS A NEW ERA PART II
THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY
This can be a lesson to anyone reading. When you stray away from your core competency too far, sometimes you lose sight of certain things. I was pleased to finally get my site launched today even though there are a few bugs. I am sorry the emails do not work in the contact section. My hoster told me they did and I did not double check them. When I did tonight I discovered none of them work, ARGHH! This has been a big distraction from my trading, and now I can get back to business. Today was one of the worst trading days I have had in a while, but the good news was the Bond System fired off another primo trade for the subs. The students beat the teacher today, there is no doubt about that. I managed to overcome the great Bond trade with what you will see below.
Thanks to everyone who signed up for something. There will be information coming to you soon. Everything kicks off October 1. The newsletter will be emailed to you when it is released each month. It will come initially from email@example.com, so make sure you have that as an accepted source so it does not get kicked into SPAM. The Bond orders will continue to be sent via email. The Swing trades will be in the website at the designated time each day. There will be days where there are no trades, but on those days the site will state no trades. For those who are doing both the bonds and the Swing trades, be prepared for a lower winning percentage in the Swing trades but higher average profit. Of course the Bonds are basically 100% at this point, so anything will be less accurate than that. Keep in mind they are two different approaches. You are spoiled so far with the Bonds having only one loss of $31 and all the other trades having been wins. I am looking forward to getting rolling on this. I am especially excited to send out the first newsletter edition.
Let me show everyone where I went wrong today, this is something I know better than to do, but I have been too distracted in recent days. Here it is.
If you switched the symbols on these two charts, you would barely be able to tell them apart. The first one is the Russell and the second one is GOLD. These are the same trade, and I did both of them, what a ding bat! I harp all the time about correlations, and I lost sight of it here. There actually is some logic as to why I ignored this correlation when I normally would not have. Michael and I have been playing around with a new trading approach, that is very mechanical. In those instances you just take the trades. I have been trading like this to try it out for about a month, and had not been burned like this. My thinking in systems is you take them all. They systems do not know if they are correlating with something else or not. The reality is these are trades I normally would have never done, and this new approach gets officially kicked to the curb now. I will keep studying it, but not with live ammo for a bit now. Thanks to PFG I don't have enough free capital to experiment like I used to do.
I will cover this subject in detail in an edition of the newsletter, it is very important in how you do your trading. Over exposing yourself to the same trade like I did today is not wise, and it will always catch up to you if this is something you continually do.
It looks to me like the date I mentioned yesterday, about the Presidential cycle dip being due was dead on. Most of the things I use are saying we are likely to go down in most places here in the next week. Beyond that I do not know at this point. My main S & P model does not have a major sell signal here yet. My COT Synthetic is in the sell zone, but it is not reliable when against a trend this strong. I will explain this as well as time goes on to readers of the newsletter. It will be featured every month as a directional tool for which way to look. It is pretty good, but like everything else, it occasionally makes a wrong turn. Typically the wrong indications are the ones that look like this does ( not pictured ), where the indicator says sell when price is flying upward in a big uptrend. There is nothing that picks tops accurately other than a time machine.
I apologize this is a crummy chart, but hopefully you can see it. This is the Presidential cycle in year 4 of a term. Today is the exact day in time where the arrow on the chart indicates a minor dip in price should begin, which will last into the end of October. The Presidential cycle does call for a strong rally into the end of the year in the 4th year of the "regime." You can clearly see that on the chart with the black arrow.
I think from a short term standpoint we need to sell the first bounce here, but bigger picture after that leads to another down leg, it will be a good longer term buy spot.