TAKE THE UNDER
With what is at stake over this number if you are betting on the NFP number by the end of next month, take the under 8%. Even if it is really way higher, they will lie about the number. The reason, history shows nobody has been re-elected when it has been over 8%. Now that I have had to dig into the real world since the PFG theft, I can tell you the regular economy here in Southern California is absolutely awful. It will be disgraceful what they tell us this Friday and also next month, in terms of how doctored those numbers will be.
As to how this will effect the market, it is tough to say. At times a bad report can rally the market because it stokes the fire for the FED to be more active. Of course that is assuming they don't already have carpal tunnel syndrome from all the day trading they are already doing! I really don't expect a huge down move because of how active they are in controlling things now. If we get a thrust down it is a buy, if you can get there before the PPT does.
Most of the trading I have been doing has been very short term, and I have been doing very well. The markets have been kind of choppy so I have been taking profits quickly as I showed with the RB and Gold trades from Friday. It looks to me like the metals are not done going up, so they are buys. I actually think the Aussie is a buy down here somewhere as well. The energies are mixed to me I have sells in some and buys in others, so it almost becomes a straddle doing the trades.
Here is Sugar and a couple of short term trades I made there recently. The arrows on the screen show the buy, I don't know why they don't show the sell. I am having some issues with the Genesis software and it's interaction with Straits Financial, where it shows things that aren't real and doesn't show things that are. Of course as per usual whenever there is some type of problem it is my fault somehow! If I ever call a customer service department for any product ever in my life, and they admit it is their fault instead of blaming me, I will drop like a sack of potatoes! In any event, this is an example of what I was talking about in taking quick profits at the moment.
Some of this I have to admit is just having so much smaller accounts now due to PFG, that I am trying to build them hitting singles and not home runs like I used to do. Once I build them up I will begin holding longer. You can see in the above example, there is no reason to over stay a long when you are in a down trend like this one. Regardless of my circumstances, I would not have tried to hold that one. I would have held the last short longer and carried the stop above today's high in the old days. As to why I did that long trade in the first place, well that is a company secret! It was for the record the only long I have tried there, my pattern worked nicely I think, so I will keep it.
What you can see that supported the short, is the sharp drop in my COT Synthetic index on that bounce where I got long. That told me inside selling was happening there, so I looked for a reason to get short due to that. This indicator does not always work that cleanly, it is really more of an art than a science to using it as I have stated before. I have some ideas about how to improve it but I just have not gotten to them yet. I will be reviewing this indicator in my newsletter series, so we will explore that process of working on it together.
The Corleone payoff shockingly was upheld, so 20 large of our money was given to that attorney that did such a great job, that one of the biggest frauds in history happened right under her nose and she did not know about it. I could only hope to be that valuable, that I failed that completely and was greased 20k for it. I really think the way this is playing out thus far the Trustee has made a decision to max out the fees of his firm and not the recovery for clients.
The court did approve an "initial" distribution of 30% today, and of course those with the most money like me, are second tier meaning we have to wait a month longer than the small account holders. It just keeps getting better doesn't it? I guess at this point we know that the max loss will be 70%. I don't expect much more to be honest unless they can sue the banks and win. I think they held back a bunch already and as far as I can calculate it equates to a likely percentage of recovery the trustee gets. There is just so little disclosure it really is tough to know what is really going on. There are some things in this announcement that are bothersome to me, but I am going to keep quiet until I am sure I am understanding them correctly. We can only hope they are keeping us in the dark for good reasons and not bad. The Trustee claimed the attorney has already been helpful in recovering assets although they were not specifically detailed, so let's hope there is more that has been found that we don't know about.
Here is a link for those who want to read about this and get the best summary of the situation
For those fellow victims, the best revenge we can get is to get back on top quickly and show these people they can't keep us down. It really does us no good at all to dwell on all of this negative stuff. I pay attention to it for obvious reasons, but I am not consumed by it. It does motivate me at a level I have not been motivated by in many years to be honest, and that is a very good thing.
Our best course of action is to make money trading, SO LETS ROLL!