Two interesting CYA developments are taking place right now, so I thought that basic cover your ass picture was appropriate. The NFA unexpectantly, returned the $700k fine they gave PFG that was paid with our money recently. As much as on the surface it appears to be a nice move, I would be willing to bet that being faced with lawsuits from clients, as well as likely pressure from the trustee and potentially the CFTC, they were probably pressured into doing this. They did issue a nice statement, so I would assume now they can feel good about taking their annual bonuses at the end of the year for a job well done. At the same time the CFTC is posturing publicly about the proper auditing of account records before any distribution, while at the same time the trustee has been telling us that auditing is what has caused the delay to this point. Another public relations stunt most likely by the CFTC. All in all, it is hard to accept anything at face value here, as this case continues to unfold.
There is also a story about how cooperative Wassendorf is being, and that a plea deal has been struck. While that is going on, there does appear to be some claw back talk going on regarding charitable donations and even 401k contributions. Net net this whole thing is such a mess. If you are a fellow victim, do not get too fired up over any one story, give it a day or two, and something new will come out that might contradict it. They seem set on keeping things quiet other than requisite court documents and appearances, so we really can't do much unfortunately. I don't think in the end our bottom line is changing much day to day here, but we just don't know. I think in terms of the money trail, if money can be proven to be fraudulently taken, no matter where it went, it can be forced to come back. As a result, the statement by Northern Iowa University that was basically too bad the money has not been spent, is not going to be quite good enough. They are going to have to unspend it whether they like it or not.
With that aside, onward to trading.
Here is a market that looks somewhat similar to Crude Oil from yesterday. You can see my new toy is flashing a buy signal here. Again this tool does not say buy at the market, it just tells me that the commercials are buying this market here, and to look for a long entry. You can see the last time we ventured up into this area, we got a rally after the pullback. With the stock market screaming higher here, unless that abates, our bias in most markets needs to be to the long side. I did get long Crude today in line with my setup I showed, but my plan was to trade it short term, so I have taken small profits already and am flat there. I really would have preferred to be long RB or HO which are stronger, but I did not have buys there with my short term tools. So I sit flat there at this point. Crude does potentially have a short term sell developing, so I am watching that.
Gold also continues to look strong, but there is a lot of volatility, so you have to pick your spots wisely.
We have had some incredible moves in both Natural Gas and Coffee the last couple of days. In my world I don't care about missing moves like that. You are going to lose many times, for every win you get trying to catch falling daggers like those. I do at times counter trend trade and catch some of these, and Natural Gas had one of the patterns I often trade. I guess I can thank PFG for taking away my spec money. That was a trade I probably would have done had my capital base been what it historically has been. However, I have had to change due to the theft, so it is what it is. You have to focus on what you are trading not what you are not. No matter how well you trade, you are going to miss big moves. You cannot cry over the ones you miss, I don't give them much thought.
A full day went by without any response from my web hoster, so I guess another delay in the launch is likely, arghhh! We have had a few days now with no trades in the Bond System, and that is going to happen at times. On thing that people newer to trading have to accept, is that if you want to trade with high accuracy, you will not be trading every day. There is not always a high percentage trade in the same market every day. If you feel the need to trade every day, just accept the fact, that what goes along with that is a lower percentage of winning trades.
I have talked with some of you on the phone over the last week, and that has been very enjoyable. I want to give a special thanks to an overseas reader who paid me a great compliment. I will not mention you by name, but if you are reading, you know who you are, thank you! It makes me realize that there is some good coming out of my efforts here.