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Monday, October 22, 2012

FUTURES TRADING - IT'S ABOUT THE PAST IRONICALLY




In as much as we can always go back and say I told you so, if you click on the link below to my post from a week or so ago I pointed this one out as a potential sell.


I also mentioned in recent posts that the stock market and the metals and energies would move together. You can see in the next chart that has also transpired.




You can see Crude has been quite a bit weaker than both Gold and Stocks so on a relative basis that is the place to short. I like to sell the weak and buy the strong. I don't always do that but it is a good rule to live by. We are now on a run down in these places so there is nothing to do at the moment but stay short if you are short and trail stops. The stock market is basically at the bottom of it's recent trading range at the moment. As a result it has been relatively contained thus far. The optimal seasonal buying time is generally right about the end of this month so we are approaching that time zone. If you are looking to catch the year end rally in the DJIA futures the time should be coming.

The dollar is on the verge of breaking out of it's down trend which would be very interesting if it were to occur. The chart has not really changed much from what I showed the other day. The most conservative way to play trend changes is to wait for the first pullback but sometimes you don't get them. You are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There is no approach nor will there ever be one that catches every wiggle.

The COT data is showing some buying on these declines but using that data is an art and also has it's short comings. I don't think any of that matters at the moment.

PFG

As far as I can tell statement of the money transferred are supposed to be available Tuesday. Since there are so many accounts I have no idea how they are going to get to all of this quickly. Presumably they have everyone's email address so depending on how good their infrastructure is they could manage it. Trade Navigator from Genesis is compatible with Vision so for me trading there could be seamless.

I was perusing a story on Wasendorf and his assets that are being sold and was blown away by how cheap that house and pool were being sold for. Someone is going to get quite a deal on those. I love the wine cellar he had being someone who is very much into Red Wine. I could never buy anything from that jerk even for a good deal.

The issue of Forex is presumably being taken up now but I can't find anything on it to give any insight. I have no idea what will happen there as I have stated before. The one feeling I always have when something goes to court is to expect the outcome to be different than I think. I am sure of one thing. Each day that goes by the trustee makes $650 and hour times 8 hours so if he can run the clock for years on this you can do the math. I think his target has always been the $24 Million in the company bank account. Their goal in my view is to take all of that in fees and I think they will be successful in doing so.

I am finding myself getting bitter about this now for some reason I cannot explain. I think it is almost like being in a trade for a long time that has not worked out and you finally bite the bullet and take the loss. I will get over it.

HOUSE KEEPING

We have fully switched over to Aweber for delivery of all of the services now and it seems to be going fine. Thanks to all of you who have signed up for something and for being patient for our learning curve on the email aspect of things.

POOF!



2 comments:

John M said...

Great call on silver. The bond system continues to kick butt, too.

Chris, I know you mentioned it a while back, but where do you have your account(s) now? RJ O'Brien is really screwing up, their system now figures margin into straight option purchases--but not always, just off and on--and I can't deal with that anymore. Money-making trades are getting rejected because of their inability to recognize or address this.

Chris Johnston said...

td ameritrade and doing one at vision with the pfg $ they transferred there