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Monday, October 08, 2012

NFP GATE - LOST IN THE OTHER SCANDALS




The doctored NFP report has been kicked aside in the face of numerous other scandals going on from illegal campaign contributions to Libyan cover ups. I read an article today that predicted the stir would calm down because economists are predicting the number will get reversed next month. Did any of these same guys predict the last number would be rigged? If not why should be think they would be accurate predicting it will be unwound? Wouldn't the reversal of it essentially confirm that is was fake like everyone knows it was? I doubt anyone will change their vote one or two days before the elections, they will have accomplished the goal by then. Ironically I had one of the busiest days ever in terms of blog readership discussing this yesterday. Interesting.

The above chart shows the trades from the Bond System which has been on an incredible roll. The last trade was exited for a big profit in the night session tonight. In spite of all the difficulty in the markets recently this system has continued to perform very well. I have had people ask for discounts on things. I realize that many readers are beginners and may not have a lot of disposable money, I was also there once. I have been moved back in that direction by my friends at PFG. However, for $75 per month the system has made $7500 per contract for the people that started with it at the beginning of August. I would say that is a pretty good return on $150 wouldn't you? I am not going to discount what is already the cheapest service of it's kind that I know of. A lot of work goes into all of this getting the orders out on time, making sure the trades are right answering all the emails etc.. You can do the math, I am not making a lot of money on this. 

Here is one thing everyone either trading this or considering doing so should keep in mind. Trading systems no matter how good they are do not win on every trade like this is doing forever. They have ups and downs. Please do not get too up or too down when the good and bad runs take place. It is hard not to be excited about a run like this, but don't go hog wild. We will have losing trades that I can promise you. The services on the site are pretty cheap so I am not going to give discounts. You have no idea how much work this is providing all of these things at the level of quality I am trying to. The other part which is the toughest part is the pressure of knowing these trades have to be good or I look like an idiot and everyone is mad at me on top of that.

If you are new take your time don't just jump into anything with me or anyone else. Figure out what you want to do. It might mean trying one of these for a month then cancelling after you find it is not for you. I am trying to provide good ongoing education in my newsletter. I can't go into detailed logic on all the trades in the services as to why they are being done. They are different approaches. The best way to use them in my opinion is to integrate them into what you are already doing. You certainly can do all of them just straight up if you want to. Much of what Michael and I do in these trades is proprietary to us. Over time we will discuss many of the concepts we use. However, we cannot just give it all away up front which I am sure everyone can understand. I think those using these services will benefit most by finding their own way to use them. Some of the trades in spite of our hard work will be no good that is trading.

Perhaps you will look at some of the trades that work out well and see some commonalities in the tools you already use that will help you filter trades or create your own methods. All of this is an ongoing learning process. The day you stop learning as a trader is the day you stop trading. There are always new things to learn. I hope all of this makes sense.

I do not see much for tomorrow that is new, the markets are in somewhat of a consolidation phase. The Naz has gotten weaker than the ES which has historically been a negative for the market, but it is not an absolute.




You can see here the purple line is much higher than the recent lows where the NAZ in black is basically right at it's lows. If you want to short the indexes, this is where to play. If you want to go long play the ES.

Good Trading


2 comments:

Vikas said...

Interesting how both equities and bonds were down today. How are we mapping now to the presidential cycle?

dave johnston said...

Gosh! I think 75.00 is a steal.I'll be singing up soon.