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Wednesday, October 03, 2012

GOLD FUTURES WHAT IS THE FUTURE?




In spite of my big picture view of this market as the biggest bubble in the history of mankind, I have been bullish here the last few months. I have been trading this market exclusively from the long side. My bubble view has nothing to do with how I trade it is just an opinion based on years of observing things like this. One thing everyone has to keep in mind. This market is tied at the hip to the Dow Jones Industrial average. The world wide program to stop deflation by injecting money everywhere is lifting all the boats together. There is no reason to be bearish on gold from a trading stand point unless you are bearish on the stock market.

I do have some short term oscillator stuff showing a ton of divergence in this market. If by chance we get a trend change in stocks and that divergence is still in place when it takes place, I will be willing to short this market. When I just look purely at price action here I see nothing that tells me to be excessively bearish. We are just in a sideways correction move of a big move up. I don't see any reason to be too excited about trading in either direction here. If you look at the indicators at the bottom, they are both bullish. The top one if a basic momentum indicator that is flat in the buy zone. The second one is my indicator I debuted in the newsletter as my fix for the OCT problems. Those who got that know the history behind this. I will continue to enhance this tool to make it even better but for now you can see it is already pretty darn good.

Net net I do not see anything to do here in Gold in either direction. If you are a longer term trader and have been holding, the stop loss points are pretty clear here. For those who might doubt my above comment about the relationship of the DOW to Gold, I leave you with you chart below. This has the DJIA overlayed on top of the price of Gold.




Your honor I rest my case!


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